5 March 2022 | New Scientist | 7News focus Ukraine invasion
NUCLEAR conflict remains a
distinct but remote possibility
as a result of the war in Ukraine,
analysts warned as New Scientist
went to press. Russian president
Vladimir Putin is in a vulnerable
and unpredictable position as
he contends with a lacklustre
economy, growing dissent among
his citizens and, now, the potential
for military defeat in Ukraine.
On 27 February, Putin raised
Russia’s nuclear readiness system
level by ordering his forces into a
“special regime of combat duty”.
Patrick Bury at the University of
Bath, UK, says this announcementwas unusually vague, unlike
the typical nuclear deterrence
strategy of acting clearly and
transparently as a warning to
others. He and fellow academics
and analysts assumed the country
would have been at level 2 of
Russia’s four-level system already,
given the situation in Ukraine.
Putin’s announcement is being
widely interpreted as a move from
level 1 (stood down) to level 2
(ready to accept an order to fire).
Bury believes we are closer to
nuclear conflict now than at any
point since the cold war tension
of the 1980s. “Putin has poked asleeping giant,” he says. “The West
has responded massively.”
This response includes Western
nations sending weapons and aid
to Ukraine, while strong economic
sanctions from around the world
are piling on the pressure against
Putin. If Russia’s invasion now
fails, he could be removed from
power or even killed in a coup,
which Bury warns is a situation
that backs Putin into a corner.With the invasion of Ukraine ongoing, there is a real risk of Russia
using a nuclear weapon as a show of force, finds Matthew SparkesThe ultimate warning
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Nuclear weapons“ In terms of military action,
I think what we’ve seen so
far is fairly limited. Russia
is going to get heavy next”A Ukrainian soldier
at the Russia-Ukraine
border on 23 February“In terms of military action,
I think what we’ve seen so far is
fairly limited. I think they’re going
to get heavy next. And I think
we need to prepare for far worse
casualties,” says Kenton White at
the University of Reading, UK.
Russia may already have
escalated its use of weaponry, with
Ukraine reporting strikes using
thermobaric weapons, which suck
in oxygen to boost their explosive
potential, and cluster bombs.
Bury puts the odds of a nuclear
detonation as a result of this crisis
at 20 per cent, but points out that
it need not lead to all-out nuclear
war. Instead, we could see a
low-yield device used against
the military in Ukraine or a device
detonated at sea as a show of force.
“There’s a lot of talk about
rationality of action when you’re
discussing nuclear deterrence,”
says White. “Well, President Putin
has a rationality all of his own.” ❚