sustainability - SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry

Sustainability 2011 , 3 1879

Table 7. Changes in Alternative Analysis 1972–2007.

Original Alternative

Year Output

(EJ)

Direct

(PJ)

Indirect

(PJ)

EROI %

Indirect

Direct

(PJ)

Indirect

(PJ)

EROI %

Indirect

1972 47.17 1435.3 943 19.8 39.7% 1435.3 654 22.6 31.3%

1977 41.29 1812.4 2013 10.8 52.6% 1812.4 1208 13.7 40.0%

1982 41.33 1618.6 3727 7.7 69.7% 1618.6 2382 10.3 59.5%

1987 40.44 1437.6 1342 14.5 48.3% 1437.6 1070 16.1 42.7%

1992 40.03 1361.5 1101 16.2 44.7% 1426.6 868 17.4 37.8%

1997 40.66 1595.0 1265 14.2 44.2% 1630.1 925 15.9 36.2%

2002 38.75 1336.2 1212 15.2 47.6% 1380.5 982 16.4 41.6%

2007 37.99 1084.6 2485 10.6 69.6% 1554.9 1546 12.3 49.9%

One of our reviewers was especially interested in the possible time lag effect—that drilling at one
point in time might produce oil at a later time. We investigated this by slipping the production relative
to the investment. The results showed no particular change in the basic patterns of EROI over time
although it decreased somewhat the inverse relation between effort and EROI ( Figure 9).

Figure 9. Time lag in the EROI value five years after the drilling occurred. An inverse

correlation is still present between the EROI and the drilling intensity (effort).

4. Discussion

Oil and gas production has been decreasing steadily since its peak in 1970 and a second, smaller
peak in 1985 when Alaska came on line (Fig.4). The maximum production in 1970 was about
9 million barrels equivalent per day. Data from the EIA and the Oil and Gas Journal show that the
most recent production is roughly 5 million barrels equivalent per day, with an increasing proportion
being gas. The U.S EROI has fluctuated over time but there is an overall negative trend over time,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Drilling Intensity

(Million Meters)

EROI

Year

EROI

Drilling million meters

EROI

Drilling Intensity

G