Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists

(Sean Pound) #1

5.2The Poisson Random Variable 155


Now, given a total ofn+mevents, because each one of these events is independently
type 1 with probabilityp, it follows that the conditional probability that there are exactly
ntype 1 events (andmtype 2 events) is the probability that a binomial (n+m,p) random
variable is equal ton. Consequently,


P{N 1 =n,N 2 =m}=

(n+m)!
n!m!

pn(1−p)me−λ

λn+m
(n+m)!

=e−λp

(λp)n
n!

e−λ(1−p)

(λ(1−p))m
m!

(5.2.4)

The probability mass function ofN 1 is thus


P{N 1 =n}=

∑∞

m= 0

P{N 1 =n,N 2 =m}

=e−λp

(λp)n
n!

∑∞

m= 0

e−λ(1−p)

(λ(1−p))m
m!

=e−λp

(λp)n
n!

(5.2.5)

Similarly,


P{N 2 =m}=

∑∞

n= 0

P{N 1 =n,N 2 =m}=e−λ(1−p)

(λ(1−p))m
m!

(5.2.6)

It now follows from Equations 5.2.4, 5.2.5, and 5.2.6, thatN 1 andN 2 are independent
Poisson random variables with respective meansλpandλ(1−p).
The preceding result generalizes when each of the Poisson number of events can be
classified into any ofrcategories, to yield the following important property of the Poisson
distribution:If each of a Poisson number of events having meanλis independently classified as
being of one of the types1,...,r, with respective probabilities p 1 ,...,pr,


∑r
i= 1 pi=^1 , then
the numbers of type1,...,r events are independent Poisson random variables with respective
meansλp 1 ,...,λpr.


5.2.1 Computing the Poisson Distribution Function

IfXis Poisson with meanλ, then


P{X=i+ 1 }
P{X=i}

=

e−λλi+^1 /(i+1)!
e−λλi/i!

=

λ
i+ 1

(5.2.7)
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