10 Future directions
The rise of China and how to accommodate this will be one of the
major international relations challenges of the twenty-first century.
Whether or not this can be achieved peacefully is of particular
importance for China’s neighbours, and none more so than for the
countries of Southeast Asia. Any attempt to foresee events is fraught
with uncertainty. All we can do is sketch possible alternative scenar-
ios, and suggest how these might play out given strategic interests,
culturally embedded values and historical precedent. Of course,
foreign policy decisions are made in response to contingent situ-
ations, both external due to the actions of other powers and internal
in relation to the play of political forces. They are, in this sense, tac-
tical. But behind these tactical responses lie broad strategic goals
conceived in the context of the international relations and strategic
cultures of the states in question. Not all tactical decisions will
advance long-term strategic goals. But the two are connected,
nonetheless, especially in the case of China, given its determination
to regain great power status.