The China–Southeast Asia relationship is crucially important for
both sides. For the nations of Southeast Asia, relations with China
outweigh those with any other power, with the present exception of
the United States. Relations with Southeast Asia would appear to be
less significant for China, given Beijing’s global great power ambitions,
but in view of China’s present economic and military weakness, its
international standing will rest, to a large extent, on its regional influ-
ence. For the geopolitical reality is that China’s influence beyond its
frontiers is limited by large powers in three directions: to the east by
Japan, to the north by Russia, and to the west by India. All historically
have resisted any form of Chinese political influence. Traditionally,
Chinese influence was greatest along the Silk Road into Central Asia
and in Southeast Asia. But any influence Beijing hopes to exert among
the Central Asian republics, formed from the breakup of the Soviet
Union, will face strong competition from both Russia and political
Islam. Moreover, Xinjiang hardly provides an ideal base from which to
project Chinese influence, any more than Tibet does for the South
Asian sub-continent.
The historic shift in economic importance from the Silk Road to
maritime trade took place from the Tang through the Song dynasties.
Thereafter Central Asia was usually more significant in terms of secu-
rity than trade. The arrival of the West both intensified this economic
shift, which today is overwhelming, and redirected the focus of China’s
security concerns. For now and into the future, the coastal provinces
of central and southern China are where the country’s economic
development is, and will be, focused, not Xinjiang. Even given com-
petition from the US and Japan, Southeast Asia offers far more
inviting opportunities for Chinese political and economic ambitions
than does Central Asia. The point I am making is simply that if China
seeks to project political power beyond its borders, Southeast Asia is
the prime target. For centuries the region has been seen by China as its
‘natural’ sphere of influence, and it still is, however unpalatable this
might be to regional powers.
Future directions