maintaining the territorial and political unity of China is today
unquestioned by either communist or nationalist Chinese, despite
often strong pressures for regional autonomy. The balance between
central power and regional aspirations is something that has constantly
to be negotiated, but it is negotiated within the context of the survival
of the empire-state.
This historical lesson has a deep and emotional influence on the
formulation of China’s strategic goals and international relations
culture. For China, after the return of Hong Kong and Macau, still
remains divided: it is weaker than it would be if Taiwan, too, were to
return to the empire-state. The importance of Taiwan in China’s inter-
national relations culture bulks so large not only for historical, but also
for strategic and political reasons, because of the quantum increase
reunification would provide to Chinese power. The return of Taiwan
would greatly benefit China’s ‘four modernisations’. A peaceful return
would also bring with it Taiwan’s considerable weapons stockpile.
Geostrategically the gains would be just as great, and of greater long-
term significance, for inclusion of Taiwan would advance Chinese
power hundreds of kilometers east into the Pacific between Japan and
Southeast Asia.
The return of Taiwan, by whatever means, would almost certainly
strengthen China’s determination to gain control of the islands of the
South China Sea, for it would reinforce their geostrategic significance.
Here the implications for Southeast Asia would be even more signifi-
cant. Should Beijing refuse to compromise on its claim to sovereignty
over the whole area and use its navy to seize the Spratlys, its reach into
Southeast Asia would be greatly extended (always provided the US did
not intervene). Vietnam would be outflanked and the island states
threatened. The strains placed on ASEAN would be immense, and
China’s relations with the region would be changed forever. Not sur-
prisingly, therefore, China’s Spratly claims are seen in the region both
as the latest example of Chinese expansionism, and as the litmus test of
China’s long-term intentions towards Southeast Asia.
Future directions