In following this strategy, China remains determined to defend what it
perceives as its long-term national interests, in particular its ‘one
China’ policy in relation to Taiwan, and its sovereignty claim to the
Spratly islands, both of which it intends to resolve from a position of
greater strength.
What developments might derail the ‘calculative strategy’? One
would be internal political conflict in the event that the Chinese
Communist Party is unable to deal with the problems outlined above.
Another would be provocative Taiwanese moves towards independ-
ence. A third would be a change in the international environment
that seriously undermined the ‘calculative strategy’, such as imposition
of severe trade restrictions or formation of a hostile coalition of powers
to contain China. But as Swaine and Tellis point out, the very success
of the ‘calculative strategy’ carries risks.^5 Economic success may gener-
ate trade disputes internationally, or challenges to the CCP internally
from a growing middle class; increasing military power, along with lack
of transparency, may push smaller nations to seek US protection; the
US itself may see China’s success as a threat to its own global hege-
mony; or China may develop new strategic interests (such as control
of shipping lanes) that bring it into conflict with other states.
Crucial to future Chinese foreign policy will be the role of the
United States. In the post-Cold War world no power can challenge the
US. Europe is an ally; so is Japan. India is fixated on South Asia. Russia
is in temporary decline. In American eyes, only China looms as a likely
future rival. Even so, it is ironical that most of the ‘China as threat’
literature comes out of the world’s most powerful state. Strident voices
argue that the US should prevent China’s rise to power before it is too
late. More moderate opinion is accommodationist, seeking ways to
engage Beijing. Whatever the outcome of the American policy debate
on how to deal with China, however, Washington will need allies. The
American position is much stronger in Northeast Asia than in South-
east Asia, despite treaties with the Philippines and Thailand.
American troops are stationed in Japan and South Korea, but nowhere
A Short History of China and Southeast Asia