in Southeast Asia. Yet if the US were to try to contain China, it would
need the support of at least some Southeast Asian states. During the
Second Indochina War, fought allegedly to prevent the southern
thrust of Chinese communism, Washington managed to obtain the
support of only two Southeast Asian states (Thailand and the Philip-
pines). Whether the US would be more successful in the face of a more
powerful and assertive China is a moot question.
If circumstances change, what might replace the present ‘calcu-
lative strategy’?^6 One possibility is that China might collapse into
internal chaos, and so be incapable of pursuing any coherent strategy.
For Southeast Asia, this unlikely scenario would be catastrophic. Not
only would Chinese foreign policy be unpredictable, but almost
certainly population movements would result that would dwarf earlier
Chinese migration to Southeast Asia. The tensions thus created in
Southeast Asia would be politically explosive and socially divisive.
A strong China that had overcome its internal problems might,
by contrast, move towards a cooperative strategy in which it would act
as a responsible global citizen playing a constructive role in inter-
national forums to resolve outstanding conflicts, no longer primarily to
the benefit of China (the ‘calculative strategy’), but for the collective
benefit of the community of nations. This rather idealistic possibility
might evolve out of increased economic and multilateral political
interdependence. It would be most clearly demonstrated for the
nations of Southeast Asia if Beijing were to give way on its compre-
hensive sovereignty claim and divide up the islands and waters of the
South China Sea.
A third scenario would be that China abandons the ‘calculative
strategy’ for a more assertive one, either because its ‘four moderni-
sations’ have had their desired effect and the Chinese feel they can
act from a position of strength, or because Beijing is responding to
what it perceives as hostile actions that threaten its national inter-
ests (see above). Essentially, a more assertive policy would see China
pursue its strategic goals urgently and single-mindedly with little
Future directions