states will together prefer accommodation with China, and in doing
so, will seek appropriate ways to evolve both their bilateral and com-
bined multilateral relations regimes. For this they will naturally draw
on their own histories and international relations cultures. Thus, as
China assumes its former preponderant position in Asia, history and
culture are likely to become more important, not less, in the evolving
relationship between China and Southeast Asia.
How would an aggressively hegemonistic China affect the in-
dependence and security of Southeast Asia? There is no denying that,
historically, China has been expansionist, to the south as well as to the
north and west. But although Southeast Asian kingdoms were at times
invaded, the tributary relationship was not unduly burdensome. Tribu-
tary states remained independent, and their security was guaranteed by
status recognition and the acceptance of mutual moral obligations.
Obviously no new tributary relationship is about to evolve, and China
will never be in a position to reimpose its own world order. But certain
elements central to historical bilateral relations regimes are likely to
carry over. These include Chinese respect for the independence and
territorial integrity of Southeast Asian nations in return for tacit
acceptance of de facto Chinese regional hegemony. No kowtow will be
performed, but Southeast Asia leaders are adept at polite, some might
say deferential, diplomacy, and they understand how to deal with the
Chinese.
The alternative to this kind of culturally and historically
grounded accommodation would be for ASEAN to form its own
NATO-like security organisation. But this would be relatively power-
less unless it included alliance with a great power—and that would be
seen by Beijing as directed against China. Tensions would increase as
China stepped up pressure on selected states, to the point where dis-
integration of ASEAN would be a likely outcome. So despite the
frustrations of Western security analysts who argue for a more robust
security framework for ASEAN, even in the face of an increasingly
powerful and assertive China, this is unlikely to happen.
A Short History of China and Southeast Asia