Development Coordination Programme of
FA0 in Bangkok in 1975 (FA0 197613) set
a target of 3 million t of aquaculture
production by l985for ten Asian countries,
excluding China. However, actual
production in 1985 was only 53% of the
targeted amount in the selected countries.
Only two countries out ofthe ten (Indonesia
and Malaysia) reached their target within
the deadline, two more (Bangladesh and
Singapore) by 1987. By 1990, two more
countries (Nepal and Thailand) reached
the targetedoutputs, but Hong Kong, India,
the Philippines and Sri Lanka are not
likely to realize their ambitious plans in
the near future.
The reasons why the overly optimistic
expectations of the 1970s did not come
true were not simply technical or economic
or environmental. The projected average
annual growth rate was 11%, not
unattainable in the growth phase of
production, as demonstrated earlier. The
main problem was that some production
techniques andlor choice of species were
not socially or culturally acceptable or
feasible in all of the countries of the region.
The marketability of certain produce
proved to be also much more limited than
expected, because the local markets (which
are the destination of most of the
aquaculture products in Asia) are rather
conservative. Nutritional traditions are
deeply embedded, especially in the rural
communities of the Asia-Pacific region. A
nontraditional commodity, however cheap
and valuable nutritionally, may not be
marketable in significant amounts.
On the other hand, the demonstrated
trendsin aquaculture development clearly
indicate that production is going to increase
steadily (although probably with a
decelerating pace) all over the region in
the forthcoming decade. In the developed
countries of the region, further
development will most likely continue to
be driven by the expansion of culturing
high-value species. Developing countries
are not expected to increase significantly
their share of export-oriented aquaculture
production of crustaceans and high-value
fish species, although their volume may
continue to increase. The proportion of
species lower in the food chain for domestic
consumption is much more likely to
increase. The steady increaseinintensities
witnessed over the past decade is also
expected to continue.
When analyzing the potentials of
aquaculture development at the World
Conference on Aquaculture held in 1986
in Venice, Italy, Kinne remarked: "The
production offood for some 8 billion people
is a nightmare for an ecologist" (Kinne
1986). This global figure would mean an
average population density of 5.4 persons
per hectare of arable land. Asia, however,
had to feed 6.1 persons from every hectare
of its arable land already in 1987 and,
according to present predictions, this
indicator will reach 7.6 persons per hectare
by the year 2000. Asians have had to learn
to cope with the nightmare of feeding 55%
of the world's population on 30% of the
arable land of the globe.
Considering the relatively low growth
rates of food production through the
cultivation ofterrestrial crops and also the
fact that inland and marine capture
fisheries are not expected to grow
significantly during the forthcoming
decade, continuing growth of both inland
and coastal aquaculture production will
be instrumental in keeping the nutritional
standards of the Asian population
improving. Luckily, present trends
indicate that total aquaculture production
in the region may reach as much as 20
million t by they year 2000, even ifgrowth
rates decelerate to some 3% per year by
the end of the century.
Entrepreneurs of the private sector,
producing cash-crops in profit-oriented
aquaculture systems, will have amarginal
role in Asia in the enormous task of
producing enough cheap food for the