ity could become even more fragile (Blair 2010; NIC
2008). As such, U.S. Army and USAID efforts seek
to identify fragility and environmental factor analy-
sis approaches, monitoring mechanisms, and early
warning systems as well as to assess compatibility
with climate vulnerability and impact assessment ap-
proaches. In particular, these efforts again seek to
identify gaps and barriers to developing “sustainable
security” planning and how fragility can be used as
an integrative operating concept to address climate
related threat multipliers.
Within the defense and intelligence communities,
there are several recent climate security studies and
programs developed to assess national security impli-
cations, including:
- 2008 National Intelligence Assessment on the
National Security Implications of Global Cli-
mate Change (public and classified versions) - 2010-2011 Defense Science Board Task Force on
Trends and Implications of Climate Change for
National and International Security (pending
release) - DOD Minerva Funded Climate Change and Af-
rican Political Stability (ongoing) - Central Intelligence Agency, Center on Climate
Change and National Security (ongoing)
USG climate security studies are focusing on links
to social unrest and vulnerability relying heavily on
geospatially-explicit approaches. Fragility and envi-
ronmental change approaches closely align with most
elements of climate vulnerability. Fragility early warn-
ing approaches can also be cross-linked in a manner
relevant to U.S. military’s strategic and operational
planning needs, but yet cognizant of natural resource
and climate change as potential threat multipliers.