Rebuilding the military has not been Russia’s
only strategy. The Kremlin has also taken steps to
increase security through other means, such as nego-
tiating further reductions in nuclear arsenals with the
United States under the New START treaty. Tensions
were eased when the United States backed away from
building a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe,
reducing the pressure for Russian military escalation
and associated costs. Similarly, Russia has supported
an international agreement to keep outer space de-
weaponized – a position to which the Obama admin-
istration has now agreed.
The Russian military has undergone reorganiza-
tion and serious downsizing in the past several years,
with many officers sent into early retirement (Savelyer
2011). This raises a question of what the shakeups and
spiraling costs for modernization mean for the future.
The greater the investment in defense modernization,
the longer the delay in addressing other pressing is-
sues, particularly environmental security, including
health and population crises. While one response
might be to downsize the scope of planned moderniza-
tion to reduce costs, the current regime would prob-
ably find the justification unacceptable. Their goals re-
quire great power status. Internal threats, particularly
in the Caucasus, demand a capable military for deter-
rence as well as response. Further, another round of
START arms negotiations between the United States
and Russia will raise issues regarding Russia’s tacti-
cal nuclear weapons arsenals that might not be nego-
tiable for Russia unless or until modernization plans
are fulfilled. Reductions in nuclear arsenals provide
increased security, with reduced environmental and
economic costs, while at the same time undercutting
incentives for an arms race.
sharon
(sharon)
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