common, the frequency of natural disasters will in-
crease. Natural disasters, expanding deserts, and
inundation from melting polar ice caps are expected
to lead to social crises in some regions. The United
States will be called upon, for humanitarian and prac-
tical reasons, to respond to these crises.
While global warming promises to bring many
severe global challenges, it is not the only serious
threat to environmental security. An ecosystem crisis,
or collapse, has historically resulted from the interac-
tion of factors; environmental catastrophe can be trig-
gered by climate change but also from toxic chemical
buildup or resource depletion from contamination,
overuse, or overpopulation, or from increased pres-
sures as trading partners or neighboring states change
important policies (Diamond 2011). U.S. sustainability
challenges, for example, arise from the depletion of
ancient aquifers as well as chemical use patterns that
are degrading environmental quality and increasing
human and animal exposures to antibiotics, synthetic
hormones, and toxic substances.
The scope and intensity of environmentally re-
lated challenges will expand in the coming decades.
As the number of those suffering serious disruptions
and shortages increases, demands for assistance will
expand, and the likelihood of desperate and hos-
tile actions affecting the United States will increase.
States, and especially great powers, need to prepare
by assessing sustainability requirements and adjust-
ing policies to maximize flexibility for dealing with
dramatic changes to the global environment in the
coming years. Both domestically and internationally,
the need for broad-based consensus must be weighed
against the urgent need for action to meet security
needs. For the United States and Russia, delayed ac-
tion will diminish available options.
sharon
(sharon)
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