Climate Change (IPCC) may predict, compared to its
2007 Fourth Report, the number of ecomigrants could
reach a billion (International Organization for Migra-
tion 2011a; International Organization for Migration
2008a). It’s not the numbers alone that are problem-
atic.
Climate change will also likely mean fewer habit-
able places. Many regions will be affected—possibly
irreversibly—by sea-level rise, desertification, and
other adverse changes (International Organization
for Migration 2008b). When coupled with resource
depletion, environmental degradation (e.g., pollution
and soil exhaustion), and other factors, climate change
may cause vulnerable places to tip from marginal to
unsustainable to collapse. As this happens, people
will move.
Moderating conditions in resource rich Alaska,
Canada, Greenland, and Russia, not to mention the
Arctic Ocean itself, will become more attractive, per-
haps irresistibly so. As this century becomes the next,
a great migration may begin, born of the push and pull
among climate change winners and losers. The dif-
ference between this and great migrations of the past
is that sovereign states now stand in the way. Will
the Kremlin allow vast numbers of Chinese to occupy
and exploit eastern Siberia, or will it fight to preserve
Mother Russia? Will Canada absorb ever growing
numbers of Americans and Central Americans, or will
it harden its border with the United States? The likeli-
hood is that most states will try harder to seal their
borders than to open them.
Peace, stability, and security depend on a state sys-
tem that is able and willing to produce and maintain
them. Climate change—the amalgamation of environ-
mental risk and security risk (United Nations Environ-
ment Programme 2011b)—is a compelling reason to
sharon
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