Idea Overload 331
means that you figure out what are the fundamental truths,
and can you build up a conclusion from that? Reasoning
by analogy is helpful because it’s a shortcut, and is mostly
correct, but tends to be mostly incorrect when you are
dealing with new things.”^357
You can first say that battery packs for electric cars
will always be expensive because they have always been
expensive. From a physics standpoint, you can break the
batteries down into the materials they are made of, and
then ask what the value is of those materials on the com-
modity market. You will now realize the material is not as
expensive as the final battery pack, so you just have to come
up with a way to improve the manufacturing process.324,354
“Data informs the instinct,” Elon said. “Generally, I wait
until the data and my instincts are in alignment. And if
either the data or my instincts are out of alignment, then I
sort of keep working the issue until they are in alignment,
either positive or negative.”^22
When you have found a solution to a problem, the
next step is to create a company. In a creative company,
it’s important to allow a certain amount of chaos. In most
organizations, failures are severely punished and successes
are moderately rewarded, and that’s not a good idea if you
want to be innovative. Innovations originates from many
attempts that haven’t worked. “Because when you try new
things, you try this idea, that idea,” Elon said. “Well, a large
number of them are not gonna work, and that has to be
okay. If every time somebody comes up with an idea it has
to be successful, you’re not gonna get people coming up