a trend that is likely to continue as the European Union begins
to exercise its true collective clout. European nations will in-
creasingly do business with each other, thanks to the elimina-
tion of internal trade barriers and the increased use of an almost
universal currency, the euro. China would have a major impact
on the United States if only because it holds trillions of dollars
of American debt. But China impacts us in many ways. Once
primarily an exporting nation, China is now a billion-person
market for the rest of the world’s goods. Its rapid modernization
has caused global shortages of concrete and steel. And China,
India, and other ascendant giants are the great unknowns in the
life-and-death question of whether the world will find a way to
balance the conflicting needs for growth and limiting green-
houses gasses. One result of these global changes is that Wall
Street, once the only player, is now one among many financial
centers, one subject to such unpredictable forces as overseas
investors, currency fluctuations, and an American public that
increasingly mistrusts what the Street says and does.
The new order is so insane that it’s hard to satirize, but for-
mer Salomon Smith Barney analyst Julius Maldutis captured
the madness some years ago when he said: “I have it on good
authority that Delta is buying Eastern, Eastern is buying Pan
Am. Pan Am is really going after United now that it has all of
United’s cash, and American’s Bob Crandall, who has been
devilishly silent all along, is getting ready to make a tender
offer for the whole industry once he reaches an agreement
with his pilots. Furthermore, I spoke to Frank Lorenzo this
morning, and he assured me that his next targets are Peru and
Bolivia, which he plans to merge into the first low-cost coun-
try.” That two of those airlines are long gone only under-
scores the point.
On Becoming a Leader