40 Middle East & Africa TheEconomistMarch12th 2022
most of all, since they tend not to grow
their own. This matters for political stabil
ity. Urbanites are more densely packed and
closer to the seat of government than their
rural cousins. So riots in cities can over
throw governments.
Rural folk might in theory benefit from
higher food prices, since many of them sell
food as well as eating it. Subsistence farm
ers are a higher share of the population in
subSaharan Africa than in the Middle
East, and not especially reliant on imports
of food. Yet even they will be hurt by higher
prices for fertiliser and transport. The cost
of ammonia, a key input for fertiliser, had
already shot up by 260% between Decem
ber 2020 and December 2021, says Wandile
Sihlobo of Stellenbosch University in
South Africa. Reduced shipments from
Russia and Belarus, both big exporters, will
boost prices further.
Costlier crude oil is a mixed blessing for
the Middle East. At current prices all the re
gion’s oil exporters, save Algeria, should be
able to run both fiscal and currentaccount
surpluses. Many Gulf governments have
reduced fuel subsidies in recent years—
motorists in the United Arab Emirates are
paying 3.23 dirhams (88 cents) a litre this
month, a record high—which will cushion
the blow to state budgets.
The picture is worse in subSaharan Af
rica, where 38 of 45 countries are net oil
importers. Higher prices will be a “very sig
nificant” negative shock, warns Abebe
Aemro Selassie, who heads the imf’s Africa
department. Even at the best of times most
African countries struggle to export
enough to be able to cover the cost of their
imports. A thumping increase in the oil
price will cause balanceofpayments trou
ble across the continent. Well before prices
started rising, petrol already accounted for
about 20% of imports in Kenya and Ghana.
Transport prices were already the big
gest cause of headline inflation (which in
cludes food and energy) in Kenya, Ghana
and Rwanda last year. In Nigeria, where an
nual inflation is running at close to 15%,
transport and food costs make up aroundthe war. Lebanon’s main grain silos were
destroyed in an explosion at Beirut’s port
in 2020, leaving the country able to store
only a month’s worth of wheat.
A drop in maize shipments from Uk
rainecould hurt Egypt, which gets 26% of
its imports from there. Because it is used
for animal feed, higher maize prices will
lead to more expensive meat in Egypt, as
well as pricier maize porridge in southern
Africa, where it is a staple. Ukraine is also
the biggest exporter of sunflower oil. Soar
ing prices are spilling over into substitutes
such as palm oil, which is popular in west
Africa. In January the un’s vegetableoil in
dex touched its highest level ever. The
manager of a cannery in Western Saharasays the costs of the sunflower oil and alu
minium he needs to can sardines have ris
en by 40% in a week.
Across subSaharan Africa food makes
up roughly 40% of the consumerprice
basket. Food inflation, which had been
running at about 9% a year in 201920,
started ticking up a year ago to reach 11% in
October because of rising transport, oil and
fertiliser prices and disruptions to farming
from the pandemic. The first to be hit by
higher wheat prices will be the likes of
Ghana and Kenya, where it accounts for
about a third of cereal consumption, or Ni
geria, where poorer urban families slurp a
lot of instant noodles.
Higher food prices hurt the urban poorShort bread
Wheat imports, 2020, $bnSource:InternationalTradeCentreBysourceLebanonTunisiaYemenMoroccoAlgeriaEgypt 1 2 3Russia Ukraine Rest of worldNigeria
Abdullah,anelegantyoungOma
ni, says he can tell instantly if some
one has bought his dishdasha off the peg,
since its cuff would not sit perfectly on
the wrist. Like Oman’s government,
Abdullah is proud of his national dress, a
white garment like a dress shirt that
flows down to the ankle. Many Omani
men also wrap their head with a tur
baned, embroidered headscarf known as
a massar. It is a fine sight. The sultan,
Haitham bin Tariq alSaid, who ascended
the throne two years ago on the death of
his longruling cousin, Qaboos, intends
to keep it that way.
The ministry of commerce recently
laid out criteria for how dishdashas
should look. They may not have a collar.
They must be a single colour, generally
white, though they may be embroidered
around the cuffs, neckline and chest.
Pale colours are the norm, though teen
agers tend to flaunt bolder hues.
Under the new rules anyone caught
wearing a deviant dishdashamay be fined
up to 1,000 Omani riyals ($2,600). The
government has weighed in on matters
of apparel before. Last year it forbade
businesses to put logos or trademarks on
traditional clothing. In 2019, under the
previous sultan, it required boys to wear
the dishdashaat school.
Fines are unlikely to be rigorously
enforced. Rainbow dishdashasare not
flooding the streets. But the govern
ment’s edict signals its determination to
preserve Omani culture and foster a
national identity. Between 2010 and 2017
the budget of the ministry of culture and
heritage, which Sultan Haitham oversaw
before he inherited the throne, doubled.
The government will soon launch “OmanAcrossAges”,a massivemuseumthat
aims to instil a sense of pride among
young, smartly accoutred Omanis.
Such moves may also boost tourism, a
pillar of Oman’s Vision 2040, a set of
reforms meant to wean the country off
oil. Oman is trying to promote itself as a
torchbearer of “the real Arabia”, says
James Worrall, an expert on the country
at Leeds University in Britain. It wants to
highlight the sultanate’s natural beauty,
long history and authenticity, compared
with the flashy gimmickry of nearby
Dubai. In 2020 the Omani ministry of
heritage and culture merged with the
ministry of tourism.
Abdullah backs the idea of fining
dodgy dressers. If you muck around with
the Omani dishdasha, it will “lose its
original flavour”. As a publicsector
employee, he must wear a white dish-
dashato work. It looks good, he notes
approvingly, with almost any massar. SumptuarylawsinOmanThe sultan’s sartorial standards
The government promotes traditional dress to boost national pride—and tourismSlow fashion