The Economist - USA (2019-07-13)

The EconomistJuly 13th 2019 Asia 37

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henshemovedfromhervillageto

Yangon,Myanmar’sbiggestcity,Ma

ThetThetNwewasafraid.Herhusbandhad

justdiedandsheneededtoprovideforfive

children.Shefoundworkata garmentfac-

toryin Hlaingthaya,an industrial zone,

andsavedenoughmoneyto buyaone-

room,bamboohouseina nearbyshanty-

town.Nowsheispleasedwithherlot.Two

ofherdaughtersworkingarmentfactories,

whileshecaresforherotherchildrenand

runsa roadsidecafé.Factoryworkiseasy,

shesayswitha smile—muchbetterthan

toilinginthefields.

MsMaThetThetNweispartofa waveof

migrantsfromthecountrysidetothecity

inthepastdecade.Dataaresparsebuta na-

tionalcensusin 2014 foundthatoutofa

population of 50m, 9.2m people had

movedtownships(theequivalentofcoun-

ties)intheirlifetime.Ofthose,overone-

thirdhadmovedsince2009,mostlytoYan-

gon.Oneinthreelivedincities.

Manywereforcedtoleavetheirhomes

byCycloneNargis,whichstrucksouthern

Myanmarin2008,killingaround140,000

people.Hundredsofthousandswereleft

destituteandmovedtothecitiestostart

over.Butthe disasteralsolaidbare the

shortcomingsofthecountry’smilitarydic-

tatorship.Insubsequentyearsthearmyre-

laxeditsgriponpower.Amongotherre-

forms,restrictionsoninternalmigration

wereeasedandforeigninvestment,previ-

ouslyshunned,waseagerlycourted.

Thathelpedusherina periodofrapid

growth.From 2008 to 2018 theeconomyex-

pandedbyanaverageof6.3%a year,thanks

inparttoa thrivinggarmentsector.Exports

ofclothesandshoesincreasedtenfoldover

thesameperiod,reaching$5.3bnlastyear,

about8%ofgdp.

ThatcreatedplentyofjobsinHlaing-

thaya.Garmentfactories’wallsareadorned

withlistsofvacancies;ittookMsMaThet

ThetNwejustfivedaystofindwork.Jobse-

curity, rather than higher wages, draws

evermorecountryfolk.Factoryhandsearn

around3,000kyat($2)perday,abouthalf

whattheycouldona farm,buttheworkis

muchmorereliable.

Therapidinfluxofmigrantshascreated

sprawlingslumsaroundfactories.Agov-

ernmentsurveyin 2017 found475,000peo-

plesqueezedintooneneighbourhoodof

eightsquarekilometres.Mosthouseshave

one room and are made frombamboo,

nipa-palmfrondsandtarpaulin.

Livingconditionsaregrim.Crimeisrife

and rubbish piles up between houses.

Floodsoccurfrequentlyduringthemon-

soon season,spewing untreated sewage

ontothestreetsandsospreadingdisease.A

studybytheministryofhealthfoundthat

slum-heavytownshipswereworstaffected

bywaterborneailments,liketuberculosis.

The municipal government’s plan to

buildmorecheaphomesaroundYangon

HLAINGTHAYA

Urbanisationisreshapingboththecitiesandthecountryside

MigrationinMyanmar

Moversandforsakers

cused on America’s chief concern: how to

withdraw its forces without allowing Af-

ghanistan to become any more of a haven

for international terrorists, such as Islamic

State and al-Qaeda. Yet a deal between the

Taliban and America is not enough to se-

cure peace in Afghanistan. Even before

American troops invaded in 2001, the

country was aflame. To allow American

troops to depart without leaving chaos and

bloodshed in their wake, the Taliban must

find a way to rub along with the Afghan

groups they once fought and persecuted.

Discrepancies in the translation of the

declaration agreed in Qatar give an idea of

the difficulties. The English version did not

mention an American withdrawal. The

Pushtu version reportedly had no mention

of protecting women’s rights. Under the

Taliban, women have been unable to leave

home without a chaperone and have been

denied work or education.

Filling in the details will be conten-

tious. Who, for example, will decide what

is acceptably Islamic? “People will accept

concessions, but they are not going to ac-

cept an emirate,” says one Western official.

Under the Taliban’s interpretation of de-

mocracy, only people with sufficient Is-

lamic knowledge should be allowed to

vote. “As you can imagine, all those people

are men with white beards.”

The Taliban’s delegation to the talks was

indeed a collection of men with white

beards—some of them former detainees at

the American military prison in Guantá-

namo Bay in Cuba. The Afghan officials in-

cluded several women, most notably the

country’s first female governor.

Taliban fighters in the field often say

they cannot negotiate for anything less

than a strictly Islamic system. “Without

that Islamic regime, a deal for me perso-

nally would offend and dishonour those

thousands of Taliban and leaders we sacri-

ficed,” says a commander in Ghazni, a town

150km south of Kabul, the capital.

The Taliban also refuse the main de-

mand of the Afghan government: a cease-

fire. While vowing to protect civilians, the

Taliban nonetheless say the war must con-

tinue. It is the pressure of war, they say, that

has led to negotiations, so they must keep

it up. In the past week the Taliban have at-

tacked government buildings in Ghazni

and Kabul, wounding scores of children in

schools nearby. By the same token, an Af-

ghan commando raid on a hospital in the

province of Wardak, just west of Kabul, re-

portedly killed at least two of its staff.

The Taliban and America are in the mid-

dle of their seventh round of talks. There

have been hints of progress on a timetable

for an American withdrawal and on assur-

ances that the Taliban will not harbour ter-

rorists. Talks among Afghans will be longer

and messier. But they are the only way to

end the country’s decades of agony. 7 1