The Economist - USA (2019-07-13)

38 Asia The EconomistJuly 13th 2019

seems far-fetched. Theallotted sitesre-

mainundeveloped;private investorsare

yettobefound.TheAsianDevelopment

Bankestimatesthat,toprovidehousingfor

thoseintheslumsandtocatertoa growing

population,thecityneedstobuild100,000

low-costunitsa yearforthenexttenyears.

Between 2010 and 2016 it built around

3,000unitsa year.

LifeinHlaingthayaisprecariouseven

forthosewithjobsandhomes.KhinThet

spent1.1mkyatonherhouse,butworries

shewillbeevictedwhena newrailwayline

isbuilt.Fewreceivebenefitsrequiredby

law,suchasredundancypay,becausethey

workintheinformaleconomyortheirem-

ployershavefailedtocompletetherele-

vantpaperwork (and paythe associated

taxes).Exploitationisa constantrisk.Most

migrantstotheslumaresingle;overhalf

arewomen.Pimpsseekoutworkersdis-

missedfromfactories.

Forthosewhocannotfindsteadywork,

lifeislittlebetterthaninthevillage.Kyaw

ZepaTuaandhisfamilycametoHlaing-

thaya three years ago. He and his wife

struggletofeed theirchildrenandhave

fallenintodebtwiththeirlandlord,who

charges40,000kyatamonthforapoky

roomina grimybamboohostel.Fourother

families share thehostel, all insimilar

statesofinstability.Ifthingsdonotim-

prove,saysMrKyawZepaTuaglumly,they

willhavetogobacktothevillage.

Returningmigrants willfindthatur-

banisationhaschangedvillagelife,too,by

creating a shortage of people. In the

Ayeyarwadyregion,tothewestofYangon,

thisisparticularlyclear.Thatispartlybe-

causeofproximity.ButAyeyarwadyalso

haslowratesoflandownership,givinglo-

calslessreasontostayput,andwasinthe

pathofCycloneNargis.Asa result,thevil-

lagesareemptying.Asurveyofsixbythe

InternationalOrganisationforMigration

foundthattwo-thirdsoffamilieshaveat

leastonememberwhohasleft.

Theworking-agepopulationaredispro-

portionatelylikelytomove.Thatischang-

ingthecultureofthevillages,saysKoWin

ZawOo,whoworksfora localngo. There

are fewerpeople to perform communal

tasks that used to fall to young adults, such

as repairing roads and bridges and helping

to organise Buddhist festivals. The quality

of village councils, which do things like

settle disputes and interact with the central

government, is also suffering. Previously

the cleverest people in the village would

have joined the council. Now bright sparks

head to the city. “Only the drunks and drug

addicts will be left,” says a gloomy expert.

Remittances from relatives in the cities

are also changing things. Mom-and-pop

stores work as intermediaries for cash-

transfer firms, allowing locals to send and

receive cash swiftly. In 2016, 1% of the pop-

ulation used an app or a cash-transfer firm

tomovemoney.Now80%do,saysBrad

Jones,bossofWaveMoney,onesuchfirm.

Ithandled$1.3bninMyanmarin 2018 and

hasalreadysurpassedthatfigurethisyear.

Theexodushashada bigimpactonagri-

culture,inparticular.KhinAye,a farmerin

theAyeyarwadyregion,has 14 acresofpad-

dyfields,whichcanbeseenthroughthe

backwindowofhisfarmhouse.Overthe

oinkofpigs,heexplainshowharditisto

findlabourers.Hesayshehastopaydouble

hispreviousdailyrate.Onestudyfound

thatagriculturalwagesintheareajumped

40%between2011 and2016.Somefarmers,

strugglingtomakeendsmeet,havesold

theirpaddyfieldsorswitchedtolessla-

bour-intensivecrops.Automation isan-

otheroption.Buffaloesarebecominga rar-

ity,butploughspulledbytractorsarea

commonsight.MrKhinAyestartedrenting

onetwoyearsago.Theamounthepaysthe

rentalfirmisaboutthesameasheusedto

payforlabourers,butnowtheworkisdone

muchquicker.

ArecentstudybyMyatThidaWinand

BenBeltonof MichiganState University

and Xiaobo Zhang of Peking University

foundthattheshareoffarmsinsouthern

Myanmar usingmachinesto harvestin-

creasedfrom10%to54%between2011 and

2016.Theyalsolookedattheannualsales

offivelocalfarm-vehicledealerships.They

foundthatbetween 2013 and 2016 thenum-

beroftwo-wheeltractorspurchaseddou-

bledto20,684.Salesoffour-wheeltractors

and combine harvesters soared 12-fold

from 460 to 5,572. The paddy fieldsof

Ayeyarwady region are one of the few

placesonEarthwherea waveofautoma-

tionisseenbynearlyeveryoneasa relief. 7

F

ora longtimehikersinJapanhave

considereda bearbellessential.Its

tinnyringissaidtoscareoffthehuge

creatures.Nowadays,however,bearbells

areincreasinglyusefulonthewaytothe

shopsaswellasinthewild.“Thenumber

ofanimals—whetherbears,boarsor

monkeys—isexpanding,andtheyare

goingintovillagesandtowns,”says

HirotoEnariofYamagataUniversity.

Japanishometomanyspeciesofwild

animals,includingbothblackandbrown

bears.Estimatesoftheirnumbersare

wobbly,butsincethe2000sthenumber

ofbearsightingshasbeenrising.There

werecloseto13,000in 2018 alone.The

resurgencehasitsrootsinhumande-

mography:theshrinkingofJapan’s

populationisespeciallyacuteinrural

areas,whereit isexacerbatedbyongoing

urbanisation.Thedwindlingquantityof

people,inturn,hasemboldenedani-

mals.Bearsarelessinhibitedabout

enteringvillagesinbroaddaylightif

there are few folk around, Mr Enari says.

Indeed, the biggest jumps in sightings

have been where the population is falling

fastest, such as Akita, a prefecture in the

north-west of Honshu, Japan’s most

populous island.

Hunting is declining in Japan, too.

Government data suggest that the aver-

age hunter is now 68 years old. The coun-

try’s many forests and mountains pro-

vide an expansive habitat for wild

animals. Indeed, true wilderness is

growing as foresters and farmers die off.

Bears become particularly bold in years

when acorns are scarce, sneaking into

orchardstostealpersimmons.

While some welcome the ursine

renaissance, others suffer from it. Every

year bears injure scores of people, and

kill a handful. Deer cause damage to

farmland and spur erosion by, for ex-

ample, gobbling up grass. Simple sol-

utions, such as changing the layout

around villages or putting up fences, are

rarely used. Instead, many bears are

captured or killed. In 2013 the govern-

ment resolved to halve the number of

certain types of deer, boars and monkeys

by 2023. Japan is struggling to adapt to

the “changing power balance between

animals and people”, says Mr Enari.

Thebearsarewinning

Bearsv humansinJapan

TOKYO

Fewerpeople,moreanimals

Where do you keep the persimmons?

2