TheEconomistJuly 13th 2019 471“H
e’s almosthere...he’s arrived! He’s
arrived!” bawls the mayoral candi-
date, as a sea of blue and white flags declar-
ing Prima L’Italia, Italy First, wave in the
summer evening air of the ancient Umbri-
an hill city of Orvieto. And as the cheers and
the shouts of “Mat-te-o! Mat-te-o!” swirl
around the medieval buildings, the man
the crowd is really here to see walks onto
the stage: Matteo Salvini in chinos and an
open-neck shirt, sleeves rolled up, slightly
tubby, as ordinary-looking as any of the
adoring fans jammed into the little square.
They call him Il Capitano. No Italian can
fail to hear an echo of Mussolini’s nick-
name, Il Duce.Critics see neo-fascist over-
tones everywhere—from the fact that Mr
Salvini recently published a book using a
publishing house with links to a far-right
outfit, CasaPound, to the observation that
he has been seen in a jacket made by a de-
signer the CasaPounders favour. His perso-
nality cult, driven by dozens of daily tweets
and Facebook posts, expertly crafted to
show him as a man of the people, on the
side of the little guy against the elite, comesin for similar suspicion.
But you don’t have to believe that Mr
Salvini is a neo-fascist, or could succeed as
one in a place as pluralistic as Italy, to be
alarmed by his rise. Nominally, his party,
the right-wing Northern League, is the ju-
nior partner in an unlikely and unstable
coalition government with the anti-estab-
lishment Five Star Movement (m 5 s). In re-
ality, Mr Salvini has been the most power-
ful man in Italy since shortly after he
became a deputy prime minister in June
last year. His relentless rise in the opinion
polls, and the League’s stunning victory at
the European Parliament elections in May,
mean that he, more than anyone, makes
the political weather. It is quite a feat for a
man and a party that six years ago won just4% of the vote. The League took 17% in last
year’s general election, 34% in May, and is
polling even higher now.
The problem is that Mr Salvini has not
risen to pre-eminence by solving or show-
ing how he might solve any of Italy’s obvi-
ous malaises. Its economy is stagnant. Be-
tween 2008 and 2018 Italy’s gdpfell by 3%
in total, compared with a 13% rise in Ger-
many, a 10% rise in France and a 4% rise in
Spain, the three other big euro-zone econo-
mies. It has stubbornly high unemploy-
ment, at around 10%. He has won support,
rather, by the well-tested populists’ meth-
od of finding others to blame. And that car-
ries big risks, for Italy and for Europe.
There are two favourite enemies: mi-
grants and Brussels. As he revs up the
crowd in Orvieto (the local candidate he
was there to back last month went on to
win the mayoralty easily in what has tradi-
tionally been Italy’s central left-dominated
“red belt”), Mr Salvini takes swipes at both.
He tells listeners that he respects the right
of people to believe in other gods, “Just so
long as that God does not come and tell me
that women are worth less than men and
that they must go around in a burqa.” Vast
applause ensues. “More carabinieri! Fewer
irregular aliens!” he cries. Loud cheers.
Since taking the additional post of inte-
rior minister in the coalition government,
Mr Salvini has used his powers to clobber
migrants. As one of his first actions, he
closed Italian ports to ngoboats carrying
people rescued from the sea, and has nowItalyThe captain sets course for the rocks
MILAN, ORVIETO AND ROME
Matteo Salvini is the most powerful man in Italy. Will he use that power to wreck
the euro? Or will he back down?Europe
50 Greece’snewprimeminister
50 FilminginSiberia
51 Charlemagne: Germany’s weaknessAlso in this section