distinctive feature of the bottom billion countries is that they are
caught in one or another of the following traps:
The conflict trap: Although all societies have conflict, the
form of conflict in the bottom billion societies is much more
violent and pervasive (civil wars, coups d’état). Three economic
characteristics make a country prone to conflict, namely low
income, slow growth and dependence upon primary commodity
exports. The risk that a country in the bottom billion falls into
civil war in any five-year period is nearly one in six. In fact, 73%
of people in these societies have recently been through a civil
war or are still in one; The natural resources trap: Three main reasons explain why
natural resource abundance is a trap, namely the “Dutch
disease” phenomenon, volatility in commodity prices, and the
fact that resources rents are likely to induce autocracy. A low-
income, resource-rich society that is either an ethnically diverse
autocracy or acquires the instant lopsided democracy of
electoral competition without checks and balances is likely to
misuse its opportunities in ways that make it fail to grow. About
29% of the people in the bottom billion live in countries in
which resource wealth dominates the economy. The resource
trap is not unique to the bottom billion, but it is important to
them; The trap of being landlocked with bad neighbours:
Geography matters, and so do your neighbours. If you are
landlocked with poor transport links to the coast that are
beyond your control, it is very difficult to integrate into global
markets for any product. Transport costs for a landlocked
country depend upon how much its coastal neighbour has spent
on transport infrastructure. Furthermore, landlocked countries
also depend upon their neighbours as direct markets. If the
neighbouring markets are stagnant or caught in a trap
themselves, the situation is aggravated. However, whether being
landlocked matters at all depends upon what other
opportunities are open to the country (e.g., resource wealth).
38% of the people in the bottom billion societies are in
countries that are landlocked, but this is overwhelmingly an