CHILD POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: THE WAY FORWARD

(Barry) #1

costs, thus making migration accessible to low income/unskilled


people as well. The long term inequality impact of migration


depends also on whether it triggers a brain drain, brain gain, or


brain waste. The cross country evidence (IMF 2004) shows that


remittances raise current consumption, reduce volatility and


improve the creditworthiness of the countries of origin, but do not


have a significant impact on the investment rate and GDP growth.


In light of all this, one would not expect that migrant remittances


played a central role in reducing income inequality, either directly or


indirectly.


(iii) Availability of external finance. Between 2004 and 2008, the


region recorded a rebound in capital inflows after their decline in


the early 2000s. The increase in capital inflows between 2002 and


2007 amounted to 2.4% of the region’s GDP (Ocampo 2008).


Portfolio flows to the private sector accounted for most of this


increase. The cost of such funds dropped markedly with the decline


of country spreads, i.e. from a regional average of 11.5% in May


2004, to less than seven percent in May 2007, and 7.3% in May



  1. This financial exuberance affected the region in several ways


(Ocampo 2009): first, the decline in international interest rates


exerted a downward pressure on domestic interest rates; second,


capital inflows led to an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate;


third, portfolio inflows mainly consisted of purchases of shares and


securities, generated a boom in regional stock markets and, as a


result, the stock market capitalization of the 7 largest regional


economies quadrupled in value between mid-2004 and the end of


2007 (ibid); fourth, the inflows facilitated the accumulation of


international reserves which reduced country spreads on


international loans. In contrast, the FDI stock stagnated at 22% of


the region’s GDP, after having risen from 8% to 22.6% of GDP


between 1995 and 2002 as a result of several foreign acquisitions of


privatized state assets (Unctad 2008).


Also in this case, it is difficult to trace the general equilibrium effect


of the 2004 to 2007 financial exuberance on inequality. As in the


case of rising terms of trade gains and remittances, it is likely that


these inflows affected growth (and therefore employment and


inequality) indirectly, via the relaxation of the balance of payments

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