10

The Disorganized Universe

The Value of the Unpredictable

It might be thought that true unpredictability would be an absolute bar-
rier to knowledge. While the unpredictability of the random and near
random is a source of uncertainty with respect to individual events, the
analysis of aggregations of random events is the domain of the subjects of
probability and statistics, two of the most highly practical mathematical
disciplines. We can only acquire information about the long-term aver-
ages of the next f lip of the penny; yet information of that type suffices to
provide a major foundation stone for our civilization.
Although we never give the matter much thought, on any day there is
always the chance that we may suffer or cause an injury while in a car.
The absence of insurance would probably not deter any of us from driv-
ing, although we would risk financial devastation if either of those two
events occurred and we were unable to pay for them. Insurance enables
us to avoid such devastation, because we can pay a reasonably small pre-
mium to protect ourselves against such an outcome. Insurance compa-
nies compile detailed records in order to determine what to charge a