How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic (2006)

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Ex-post-facto statistics 71

different, no doubt different beings in a different universe would
be congratulating themselves on their good fortune.
The fallacy is a great prop for those who suppose themselves
the children of destiny. Looking at the unlikely events which have
led to their present position, they see the unseen but inexorable
hand of fate behind them, never realizing that had things been
different they could have said the same.

just think, if we hadn't happened to be staying in the same hotel, we
might never have met and never have married.
(But they might have met and married other people, and thought
themselves just as fortunate.)

Your use of this fallacy will depend a great deal on your
temperament. It can be deployed at short range to convince
others that you are a favoured child of the universe and entitled
to receive special consideration:

/ believe I was meant to get this job. I saw the advertisement for it in a
paper the wind blew against my face in Oxford Street. I feel that
something put me in that place at that time so that I would get this job.
I'm not saying that should influence your decision, but...
(But it should. Few of us like to confront the remorseless hand of
destiny by stamping on its fingers.)

If you have the other temperament, you can always use the
fallacy to gain some sympathy:


just my luck! Of all the parking meters in London she could have been
checking, it had to be mine. And just at the worst possible time!
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