How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic (2006)

80 How to Win Every Argument

was for each of the other tosses. The previous tosses do not affect
the odds for the next one. In random or chance events, each go
is separate from previous or future ones. Most casual gamblers,
seeing four heads in a row, would bet on tails for the fifth toss
because five in a row is unlikely. The professional gambler would
probably bet on heads again, suspecting a crooked coin.

Red has come up 73 times out of the last 20.

That means we are due for a run of blacks. I am betting on black.

(If the table is honest, the odds on black remain, as before, the same

as the odds on red.)

There is widespread belief in everyday life that luck will
somehow even out. The phrase 'third time lucky' is indicative of
a general feeling that after two failures the odds for success
improve. Not so. If the events are genuinely random, there is no
reason for supposing that two losses improve the chances of a
win. If, as is more common, the results reflect on the character
and competence of the performer, the two losses begin to
establish a basis for judgement.

I'm backing Hillary Clinton on this one. She can't be wrong all the time.

(Oh yes she can.)

One area where previous events do influence subsequent ones
is in the draw of cards from a limited pack. Obviously, if one ace
is drawn from a pack of 52 cards containing four aces, the
chances of another ace being drawn are correspondingly
reduced. Professional gamblers are very good at remembering
which cards have been drawn already, and how this bears upon
forthcoming draws. Still other gamblers are very good at making
up from their sleeves what the laws of chance and probability
have denied them from the deck.