The Economist - USA (2019-08-17)

10 Leaders The EconomistAugust 17th 2019

1

I

n 1973MajorHaroldHering,a veteranpilotandtraineemissile-

squadroncommander,askedhissuperiorsa question:iftold

tofirehisnuclear-tippedrockets,howwouldheknowthatthe

orderswerelawful,legitimateandfroma sanepresident?Soon

after,MajorHeringwaspulledfromdutyandlaterkickedoutof

theairforceforhis“mentalandmoralreservations”.

Hisquestionhita nervebecausetherewas,andremains,no

checkonapresident’sauthoritytolaunchnuclearweapons.

Thatincludeslaunchingthemfirst,beforeAmericahasbeen

nukeditself.TheUnitedStateshasrefusedtoruleoutdroppinga

nuclearbombonanenemythathasusedonlyconventional

weapons,sinceit firstdidsoin1945.

Manypeoplethinkthiscalculatedambiguityisa badidea.It

is unnecessary, because America is strong

enoughtorepelconventionalattackswithcon-

ventionalarms.Andit increasestheriskofacci-

dentsandmisunderstandings.If,whenthetide

ofaconventionalwarturns,RussiaorChina

fearsthatAmericamayunexpectedlyusenukes,

theywillputtheirownarsenalsonhighalert,to

preservethem.IfAmericacalculatesthatitsri-

valscouldthusbetemptedtostrikeearly,it may

feelunderpressuretogofirst—andsoon,nudgingtheworldto-

wardsthebrink.

ElizabethWarren,a Democraticcontenderforthepresidency,

isoneofmanywhowanttoremedythisbycommittingAmerica,

bylaw,toa policyofNoFirstUse(nfu) (seeUnitedStatessec-

tion).IndiaandChinahavealreadydeclarednfu, orsomething

close,despitehavingsmaller,morevulnerablearsenals.

MsWarren’simpulse toconstrainnuclearpolicyisright.

However,herproposal couldwellhaveperverse effectsthat

maketheworldlessstable.ManyofAmerica’sallies,suchas

SouthKoreaandtheBalticstates,facelargeandintimidatingri-

valsata timewhentheyworryabouttheglobalbalanceofpower.

TheythinkuncertaintyaboutAmerica’sfirstusehelpsdetercon-

ventionalattacksthatmightthreatentheirveryexistence,such

asa RussianassaultonEstoniaora ChineseinvasionofTaiwan.

WereAmericatoruleoutfirstuse,someofitsAsianalliesmight

pursuenuclearweaponsoftheirown.Anysuchproliferation

risksbeingdestabilisinganddangerous,multiplyingtherisksof

nuclearwar.

Theaimshouldbetomaximisethedeterrencefromnuclear

weaponswhileminimisingtheriskthattheythemselvesbe-

comethecauseofanescalation.Theplacetostartisthequestion

posedbyMajorHering 46 yearsago.Noindividualoughttobe

entrustedwiththeuncheckedpowertoinitiateannihilation,

evenif heorshehasbeenelectedtotheWhiteHouse.Onewayto

checkthepresident’slaunchauthoritywouldbetoallowfirst

use,butonlywithcollectiveagreement,from

congressionalleaders,say,orthecabinet.

Thereareotherwaysfora first-usepolicyto

besafer.Americashouldmakeclearthatthe

survivalofnationsmustbeatstake.Alas,the

Trumpadministrationhasmovedintheoppo-

sitedirection,warningthat“significantnon-

nuclear strategic attack”, including cyber-

strikes,mightmeetwithanuclearresponse.

Americacanalsomakeitssystemssafer.Abouta thirdofAmeri-

canandRussiannuclearforcesare designedtobelaunched

withina fewminutes,withoutthepossibilityofrecall,merelyon

warningofenemyattack.Yetinrecentdecades,missilelaunches

havebeenambiguousenoughtotriggerthemostseriousalarms.

Ifbothsidesagreedtotaketheirweaponsoffthishair-trigger,

theirleaderscouldmakedecisionswithcoolerheads.

Mostofall,Americacanputmoreeffortintoarmscontrol.

ThecollapseoftheIntermediate-rangeNuclearForcesTreatyon

August2ndanda deadlyradioactiveaccidentinRussiainvolving

a nuclear-poweredmissileonAugust8th(seeSciencesection)

werethelatestremindersthatnuclearrisksaregrowingjustas

theworld’sabilitytomanagethemseemstobediminishing. 7

Finger on the button

If America ruled out using nuclear weapons first the world would not be any safer

Nuclear doctrine

W

ho is thegreater threat to free speech: President Donald

Trump or campus radicals? Left and right disagree furious-

ly about this. But it is the wrong question, akin to asking which of

the two muggers currently assaulting you is leaving more

bruises. What matters is that big chunks of both left and right are

assaulting the most fundamental of liberties—the ability to say

what you think. This is bad both for America and the world.

The outrages come so fast that it is easy to grow inured to

them (see International section). The president of the United

States calls truthful journalism “fake news” and reporters “ene-

mies of the people”. In June, when a reporter from Timepressed

him about the Mueller inquiry, he snapped, “You can go to pri-

son,” justifying his threat by speculating that Timemight publish

a picture of a letter from Kim Jong Un he had just displayed. Mr

Trump cannot actually lock up reporters, because America’s ro-

bust constitution prevents him. But his constantly reiterated

contempt for media freedom reassures autocrats in other coun-

tries that he will not stop them from locking up their own critics.

On the contrary, when Saudi Arabia blatantly murdered Jamal

Khashoggi, a Washington Postcontributor, in its consulate in Is-

tanbul last year, Mr Trump was quick to reassure the Saudi crown

prince that this would not affect any oil or arms deals.

Speak up

As societies polarise, free speech is under threat. It needs defenders

Civil liberties