20 United States The EconomistAugust 17th 2019
2 should a nuclear response be off the table?
And even if it was declared to be so, would
adversaries believe it? After all, Pakistan is
scornful of India’s own nfupledge, just as
America is sceptical of China’s. Talk is
cheap, trust is in short supply and the
stakes could not be higher.
Whereas Ms Warren’s proposal would
outlaw first use under any circumstances,
others merely wish to place checks on this
untrammelled presidential launch author-
ity. America’s nuclear chain of command
was designed to concentrate decision-
making in the White House and to keep it
away from generals. James Mattis, Mr
Trump’s defence secretary until last year,
reassured outsiders that he would serve as
a check, telling Strategic Command “not to
put on a pot of coffee without letting him
know”, according to the Washington Post.
But he had no foolproof means to guaran-
tee he could do this.
“The weight of the open evidence” sug-
gests that “the Secretary of Defence is not
just unnecessary, but not even in the nuc-
lear chain of command,” says Alex Weller-
stein, an expert on nuclear history at the
Stevens Institute of Technology. William
Perry, a former defence secretary, agrees.
The president is free to instruct the chair-
man of the joint chiefs of staff, the top mil-
itary officer, as he wishes. “We built a sys-
tem that depends on having a rational actor
in the White House,” says Alexandra Bell, a
former State Department official now at the
Centre for Arms Control and Non-Prolifer-
ation. “We now know the system is flawed.”America first
In January Congressman Ted Lieu and Sen-
ator Ed Markey, both Democrats, reintro-
duced a bill, originally proposed in 2016,
that would force the president to seek a
congressional declaration of war (last done
in 1942) with express approval for nuclear
first use. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic
leader of the House of Representatives, en-
dorsed the idea in 2017.
There are also wider efforts to prune the
arsenal. Adam Smith, the chairman of the
House Armed Services Committee and co-
sponsor of Ms Warren’s nfu bill, has
sought to cut funding for Mr Trump’s mini-
nuke and to limit its deployment on sub-
marines. To the Pentagon’s horror, he has
also suggested scrapping America’s silo-
based missiles, leaving the job to subma-
rines and bombers.
Politicians should not expect clear
guidance from voters. A survey in 2010
found that 57% agreed with Ms Warren that
“the usshould only use nuclear weapons in
response to a nuclear attack by another na-
tion.” Yet it turns out that Americans also
quite like fire and fury. A paper by Scott Sa-
gan of Stanford University and Benjamin
Valentino of Dartmouth College, published
in 2017, found that a clear majority ap-provedofusingnuclearweaponsfirstif do-
ingsowouldsavethelivesof20,000Amer-
icansoldiers—evenifitkilled2mIranian
civilians. “The conventional wisdom
aroundnuclearweaponsremainsstrongly
embedded,”saysJonWolfsthal,directorof
theNuclearCrisisGroupanda formeroffi-
cialinMrObama’sadministration.“Iam
notsure there willbe changes, but big
changesarebeingdiscussedmoreopenly
nowthanina longtime.” 7N
early twodozen presidential candi-
dates descended on Iowa’s State Fair,
which began on August 8th, each with a dif-
ferent style and number of supporters.
Elizabeth Warren’s were young, loud and
pre-loaded with chants. Kamala Harris’s
formed a yellow-shirted, fresh-faced,
hyper-enthusiastic wave that left stick-
ered, dazed-looking Iowans in its wake. Jay
Inslee’s fan club comprised Channing Dut-
ton, an amiable personal-injury lawyer
from Des Moines, who held up a home-
made sign that read, “Talk Climate!”—re-
ferring to Mr Inslee’s signature issue.
Mr Inslee served eight terms in Con-
gress and is in his second as Washington’s
governor, where he has enacted a Demo-
cratic wish-list of policies, including a mo-
ratorium on capital punishment, expand-
ed parental leave and an impressively
detailed path to clean energy by 2045. He istall, square-jawed, handsome and married
to his high-school sweetheart. Yet he has
struggled in a crowded field, and is polling
below 1%, both nationally and in Iowa.
In fact, just three candidates—Ms War-
ren, Ms Harris and Joe Biden—are polling
in double digits in the state. Nationally, Ms
Harris drops to 9% in The Economist’s aver-
age of polls, while Bernie Sanders is at 14%
(a bit lower in Iowa). Sixteen candidates are
bumbling along at 1%. Thus there were two
contests playing out at the fair: four or five
front-runners fought to be top dog, while
the rest fought for a bit of attention.
For some that was hard to come by. Mike
Schweiger, a lean, white-haired electrician
wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with the
name of his union, said he supports Ms
Warren, because “she talks about the need
for a union resurgence, and that’s my issue.
It’s not abortion, not the influx of aliens.
That will bring back the middle class.” As
he was explaining himself, Tim Ryan, a
congressman from Youngstown, Ohio and
a fervent union advocate, was on stage just
a few feet away. Mr Schweiger said he had
never heard of Mr Ryan; his wife asked if he
was the one who ran with Hillary Clinton
(that was Tim Kaine).
“Every time a poll comes out and I’m at
2%, I think, ‘Oh my God, in the next one am
I going to be at 4%?,” says John Hicken-
looper, a former governor of Colorado, who
is stuck on 1%. Mr Hickenlooper touts his
record of bipartisan achievement. “I’m the
only candidate who does what everyone
talks about,” he tells reporters after his
speech, his omnipresent smile hardening
into a rictus. “If I keep saying it often
enough, it’ll get through their heads.”
There is still time to say it often enough.
Iowa’s caucuses in February are the prim-
ary season’s first contest. Winners do not
always capture their party’s nomination, as
Tom Harkin (1992), Mike Huckabee (2008)
and Ted Cruz (2016) can attest, but a poor
performance can end a campaign. Some
Democrats grumble about the size of the
field, but—short of running out of mon-
ey—no candidate yet has a strong enough
incentive to drop out.
The field is more open than it seems. Mr
Biden holds a comfortable lead but he is
gaffe-prone and would take office at 78,
which would make him the oldest man to
do so. His performances on the trail have
been meandering and unimpressive; he
seems to inspire more affection than genu-
ine enthusiasm. If he begins leaking sup-
port, every other candidate wants to be
there with a bucket.
Still, short of an incredible run of luck,
none of the stragglers seems likely to break
through as long as the field remains so
crowded. Mr Dutton believes that Mr Inslee
is “a wildfire just waiting for a spark”. But
asked what that spark might be, he is cir-
cumspect. “If I knew, I’d light it myself.” 7DES MOINES
Adventures at the bottom of the packThe Democratic primaryAmong the 1%
Bill de Blasio, one percenter