The EconomistAugust 17th 2019 Europe 372
1point of keeping issupporters away from
each other, and from other inmates. That is
easier said than done. A massive and often
indiscriminate crackdown following a
violent coup attempt in 2016 has left the
prisons more overcrowded than ever, leav-
ing some 30,000 people behind bars. And
some of those who came back from Syria
were never picked up in the first place.
Turkey is getting some things right.
Since the terror campaign of 2015-2017, the
bombings have stopped. Officials credit
improved co-ordination between agen-
cies, as well as a sweeping purge of state in-
stitutions directed against members of the
Gulen movement, an Islamic fraternity ac-
cused of spearheading the 2016 coup. An-
alysts say it took time for police and intelli-
gence forces to infiltrate isnetworks.
A wall constructed over stretches of the
border and a military operation against is
strongholds in northern Syria have helped,
making it harder for bombers to slip into
Turkey. It is not for want of trying. Turkish
police say they have foiled at least 28 large
attacks since 2014, including a planned
massacre at a shopping mall in Istanbul.
The threat the authorities now have to
contend with is the exodus from Syria.
Their caliphate smashed to pieces by Kurd-
ish fighters and American air strikes,
scores of isfighters have escaped to Iraq.
But the group also seems keen to expand its
underground network in Turkey. “Three
years ago, we were chasing terrorists who
were about to blow themselves up,” says a
counter-terrorism official. “Now we’re do-
ing operations to disrupt their logistics and
prevent is financing from entering.”
Turkey once accused Western govern-
ments of neglecting to share intelligence
about militants, making it hard to stop
them at Turkish airports. Now it says they
are trying to dump them on Turkey. Ac-
cording to officials, 775 suspected foreign
fighters are being held at deportation cen-
tres, waiting to be sent home. Most have
destroyed their old passports. Their consu-
lates, however, are often slow to provide
them with new travel documents, which
delays or prevents deportation. Four have
been stripped of citizenship, making repa-
triation impossible. Because they can only
be held without charge for 12 months, they
can expect to be set free. “If there’s no hard
evidence against them, you cannot detain
them or open a case,” says an official. “It’s a
recipe for complete chaos.”
Turkey insists ismembers must face
trial in their own countries. Suheyla and
Lutfu hope President Recep Tayyip Erdo-
gan’s government will apply the same logic
to its own citizens, namely their daughters.
“They left after you opened the borders,”
she says, as her grandson crawls onto her
lap, his legs dotted with scars. “Now bring
them back. Sentence them to life or to
death if you like, but do so in Turkey.” 7H
ubris is anoccupational hazard for
political leaders. Two of Italy’s recent
prime ministers, Silvio Berlusconi and
Matteo Renzi, stumbled just when it
seemed they could do whatever they want-
ed. (Mr Renzi wanted to change the consti-
tution; Mr Berlusconi wanted to hold
“bunga bunga” sex parties. In both cases,
voters objected.)
Now Matteo Salvini, the leader of the
populist Northern League, wants to ditch
his coalition partners in the anti-establish-
ment Five Star Movement (m 5 s), bring
down the government that is led by Giu-
seppe Conte, an independent, and hustle
the country into a snap election so as to
give himself what he has termed “full pow-
ers”. This would enable him to impose,
among other things, a radically expansion-
ist budget for 2020. Mr Salvini claims that a
“fiscal shock” is needed to jolt the mori-
bund Italian economy back to life. Critics
fear it could instead pitch the country,
which has debts of over 130% of gdp, into a
new financial crisis, along with the rest of
the euro zone.
So the stakes were high when, on Au-
gust 9th, the League tabled a Senate motion
of no confidence in Mr Conte. Mr Salvini, a
deputy prime minister, did not, however,
withdraw either himself or his ministers
from the cabinet—a move that would have
made the fall of the government inevitable.And on August 13th, a hastily reconvened
upper house rejected the League’s demand
for a confidence debate to be held the very
next day.
The luckless Mr Conte will still have to
go to parliament to explain a crisis that is
not of his making. But he will start his visit
to the two chambers on August 20th, this
date having been set by a majority that for
the first time united the m 5 swith the oppo-
sition, centre-left Democratic Party (pd)
and a handful of regionalists and indepen-
dents. That raised the possibility that Mr
Conte, who belongs to neither party in his
coalition, might not get the thumbs-down,
or that, if he resigned, a new government
could even be formed, backed by the Five
Stars and the pd.
Nothing can be taken for granted. An
Italian government crisis has more twists
and dizzying turns than a cliff-top drive
along the Riviera. After years of reciprocal
abuse, most of it levelled by the m 5 sat the
pd, mistrust between the two parties runs
deep. Though m 5 sactivists lean mostly to
the left, they disagree with the pdon many
issues, from infrastructure to immigra-
tion. Mr Renzi, who still enjoys the backing
of most of the pd’s parliamentarians, wants
an entente. But the pd’s new leader, Nicola
Zingaretti, does not (though some of his
closest aides are open to the idea).
Mr Salvini told the Corriere della Sera, a
daily paper, that preventing a deal between
the Five Stars and the pdhad become his
priority. To that end, in the Senate, he made
a proposal apparently intended to drive a
wedge between them. The m 5 s’s most cher-
ished, and electorally popular, item of leg-
islation is one that would slash the number
of elected lawmakers to 600 from 945. The
m 5 s’s bill, which the pdopposes, needs to
be approved just one more time, in the Sen-
ate. Mr Salvini said the League would sup-
port it, if the Five Stars agreed to an imme-
diate election.
But his offer raised more questions than
it answered. It is not the m 5 s, but the presi-
dent, who decides if an election is to be
called after a government falls. And since
Mr Conte may have resigned or been ousted
before the final debate on the parliamenta-
ry reform bill, due on August 22nd, it may
never be put to a vote. Even if it is, and the
League ensures its approval, most experts
agree the effect would be to make it impos-
sible to hold an election until well into next
year: a referendum might be needed and
parliamentary boundaries would have to
be redrawn. Mr Salvini insisted the reform
could be put on hold until after the next
legislature. But aides to the president, Ser-
gio Mattarella, dismissed that idea out of
hand. So what is the League leader up to?
His offer did allow him to rebut claims
by the m 5 sthat he wants a return to the
polls solely to pre-empt the reform of par-
liament and enable his lawmakers to keepROME
But then seems to backtrackItalyMatteo Salvini
makes his move
What’s the plan?