The Economist - USA (2019-08-17)

38 Europe The EconomistAugust 17th 2019

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theirseats.Buthissurprise movecould

alsobeseenasa firststeptowardsbuilding

a ladderdownwhichhecanretreatfrom

thechaoshehasprompted.ThevoteonAu-

gust13thwasnottheonlysetbackMrSalvi-

nihasenduredrecently.

Expecting an election, he has taken

bare-chestedtothebeachestoconsolidate

hisleadinthepolls.Mobbedbyadoring

fansinthenorth,MrSalvinihasruninto

hecklinganddemonstrationssincetaking

hiscampaigntothesouth,wherepeople

stillrememberthesnooty contemptfor

southerners that heand his party once

openlyexpressed.

RecentpollsgivetheLeague36-37%of

thevote.Tocontrolparliament,however,

MrSalvinineedsaround40%.Hecanprob-

ablycountona smallpartyofformerneo-

fascistsfortheextravotes.Buttobesurer

ofvictoryhealsoneedsa dealwithMrBer-

lusconi’s much-depleted Forza Italia

movement.Thetwoleadersweretohave

met beforethe Senatevote. Butthen it

emergedthatMrSalvini’splanwas,inef-

fect,totakeoverForzaItalia,andthemeet-

ingdidnottakeplace.Fora politicianoften

depictedasItaly’sstrongman-in-waiting,

MrSalvinisuddenlylooksvulnerable. 7

I

t is 20years this month since then-Presi-

dent Boris Yeltsin appointed a shadowy

security chief called Vladimir Putin as Rus-

sia’s prime minister. The next New Year’s

Eve, the ailing Mr Yeltsin would install the

ex-kgbman as his successor. On the anni-

versary of his ascent to power, Mr Putin has

little reason to celebrate.

On August 10th, as they have for the past

five weekends, Russians took to the streets

of Moscow to demand that opposition poli-

ticians unfairly barred from next month’s

city-council polls should be allowed to run

after all. Waving white, red and blue Rus-

sian flags, an estimated 50,000-60,000

protesters flooded a broad avenue. “Russia

will be free!” they chanted. It was the big-

gest opposition rally since 2012—after Mr

Putin’s pals again bamboozled a ballot.

The city council has little power. But the

blatant interference has transformed what

should have been mundane elections into

a political crisis for the Kremlin. Although

often derided as fringe figures, many of the

aspiring opposition candidates were

poised to win seats. Mr Putin seems deter-

mined to deny his critics even a foothold

onRussia’selectoralladder.

The mounting protests come at a dan-

gerous time for Mr Putin, whose ratings

have been sliding since his government in-

troduced a five-year increase in the nation-

al pension age last summer. An invigorated

opposition movement is focused squarely

on the city-council election. But the prot-

ests are rapidly turning into a broader ex-

pression of anger over high-level corrup-

tion and widespread poverty. The

government’s own statistics agency, Ros-

stat, admitted this month that over a quar-

ter of Russian children are poor.

The opposition movement is being en-

dorsed by a growing number of music stars

and celebrities. Yevgeny Kafelnikov, a for-

mer world-number-one tennis player, is

backing the protests, as is Yury Dud, a You-

Tube blogger with millions of followers.

Ivan Dremin, a popular rapper better

known by his stage name, Face, performed

at Saturday’s rally. “Taking to the streets

has become prestigious,” writes Abbas Gal-

lyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter

turned political analyst.

The opposition’s show of strength came

after a crackdown aimed at stifling dis-

sent—a tactic that worked in 2011-12. Since

the protests began on July 14th, baton-

wielding riot police have arrested more

than 2,500 people, often violently. Al-

though many of the protesters were quick-

ly released, 14 people are facing up to eight

years in prison on dubious charges of

“mass unrest”. Among them is a man who

is accused of throwing an empty plastic

bottle at police.

The protests are also providing the op-

position with new figureheads. Most

prominent is Lyubov Sobol, a 31-year-old

lawyer who works with the anti-corruption

organisation run by Alexei Navalny, a

prominent critic of the Kremlin. Ms Sobol,

who went on hunger strike in a bid to force

her way onto the city-council ballot, was

dragged out of her office and arrested by

police ahead of last weekend’s rally.

The danger for Mr Putin now is that the

protests will trigger a chain reaction

throughout Russia. At a state-organised fo-

rum in southern Russia this weekend, par-

ticipants, including members of the ruling

party’s own youth wing, voiced grievances

over corruption and inequality that would

not have sounded out of place at a Moscow

opposition rally. “We have only one sol-

ution—revolution,” said one young wom-

an. “We are like an explosive cocktail. We

are ready to go off.” 7

MOSCOW

Vladimir Putin’s critics are getting

stronger, despite the repression

Russia

Not going away

Democracy in Russia

T

he moodmusic had grown so ominous

that the shock was somewhat muted.

After weeks of dismal survey and industri-

al-output numbers, it was little surprise to

learn on August 14th that Germany’s gdp

had contracted by 0.1% in the second quar-

ter of 2019 compared with the previous

three months. The economy has been es-

sentially flat over the past year. Household

spending, bolstered by wage growth in a

tight labour market, has held up but the

slump in manufacturing, which represents

over one-fifth of output, is deepening.

Companies are cutting work hours and is-

suing profit warnings. Many analysts think

Germany is heading for outright recession.

This has triggered two debates. First, are

Germany’s woes home-made or imported?

BERLIN

The economy has shrunk. Could the

government open the spending taps?

Germany’s economy

Ground to a halt