Measuring the Motives of Political Actors at a Distance
phies. They found that Nixon showed almost all of the correlates of
achievement and affiliation motivation, as would be expected by his
very high scores on those two motives. In contrast, he showed only
some correlates (slightly fewer than half) of the power motive, again
as would be expected by his average score on that motive.
Hermann used power and affiliation motive imagery scores, along
with other personality characteristics measured at a distance, to con-
struct personality portraits of Ronald Reagan (1983) and Syrian
leader Hafez al-Assad (1988a). Along these same lines, Snare has
constructed portraits of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi (1992a)
and post-Khomeini Iranian leaders (1990, 1992^.
In another quantitative idiographic study, N. J. G. Winter (1992)
scored selected speeches of Mussolini and found a significant increase
in power motivation and decrease in affiliation after his September
1937 meeting with Hitler that marked the beginning of their close
relationship. Such changes may help to explain the marked decrease
in the wisdom and success of Mussolini's policies from that same
time onward.
Other leaders who have been studied through the use of motive
imagery scores include U.S. president George H. W. Bush and for-
mer Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev (Winter et al. 1991b,
1991a); Bill Clinton (Winter 1998b); Woodrow Wilson (Watson
and Winter 1997); and (more briefly) John F. Kennedy (Winter
1991, in press).
Studies of Political and Social Processes
Conflict Escalation and War
The motive-scoring technique has also been applied to scoring cul-
tural documents in order to explain motivational contributions to
important social processes such as war and peace. Extrapolating from
laboratory studies of individuals and prior archival work, Winter
(1993b) hypothesized that war and the aggressive resolution of crises
would be associated with high levels of power motivation and low
levels of affiliation, while peacefully resolved crises would show the
reverse pattern. He tested this hypothesis by scoring three sets of his-
torical materials: (i) the Speech from the Throne (or "Queen's
Speech") that British sovereigns give at the opening of each session