The Psychological Assessment of Political Leadersvations among the six categories for self and others. Calculated sepa-
rately for self and other attributions, the IQV score is subtracted
from i.o to estimate the predictability of the political future (pre-
dictability of others' behavior) and one's own risk orientation (the
predictability of one's own behavior). The higher the estimates from
these calculations, respectively, the more predictable are the political
future and one's own risk orientation. For example, a leader's beliefs
with scores of .08 for P-j and .03 for I- 3 attribute very low predictability
to others and to self.
P-3. Predictability of Political Future (very low/very high)
PREDICTABILITY PREDICTABILITY
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
o.o .25 .50 .75 i.o1-3. Risk Orientation (very low/very high)
RISK AVERSE RISK ACCEPT ANT
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
o.o .25 .50 .75 i.oInterpretation of these scores is enhanced by the indices for two
related indices of the importance of timing: flexibility in shifting
between different kinds of tactics as a risk management technique.
These indices are calculated by subtracting the absolute value of the
balance index for cooperation/conflict and words/deeds from one. For
example, a leader's beliefs with scores of .57 and .53 for shifts between coop-
eration/conflict and words/deeds, respectively, manage the very low pre-
dictability of the political future by attributing a risk orientation of medium
flexibility in both cooperation/conflict and words/deeds to himself or herself.
Finally, there is an index for the role of chance, which takes into
account the predictability of the political future and the degree of
control over historical development. It is calculated by multiplying
the leader's scores for the latter two beliefs and subtracting the prod-
uct from one. The logic of the index is that the higher the pre-
dictability of the political future and the greater the leader's belief in
his or her ability to control historical development, the less the role
of chance. It is interpreted the same way as the other indices that