The Psychological Assessment of Political Leadersinitiatives in the interim have demonstrated a much surer and more
sophisticated hand. Having learned from experience, he has worked
assiduously to strengthen identified vulnerabilities.
Near AbroadIn his diplomatic efforts toward the "near abroad," Saddam has been
quite effective. Having been surprised by the lack of support for Iraq
during the Gulf crisis, Saddam has worked assiduously to rebuild
relations with his regional neighbors. Relying heavily on its
increased economic power generated as a result of increased oil sales,
Iraq has become a crucial partner for these nations. While in the past
Iraqi politics were driven primarily by internal politics and factors,
it has been external factors that have begun to open up new oppor-
tunities for Iraqi policies and help to ameliorate Saddam's domestic
problems. His immediate neighbors (the near abroad) have had the
greatest impact.
Syria. The most telling example of Saddam's modus operandi when
he feels weak and under great threat is provided by his tremendous
resolve to mend fences with his oldest living Middle Eastern rival,
President Hafez al-Assad and his regime. The years 1997-98 saw the
beginning of a new relationship between Iraq and Syria. Saddam
extended an olive branch to Assad, and the latter reciprocated in
kind. Although ties were mainly limited to economic and diplo-
matic areas, this relationship was the beginning of Iraq's reaccep-
tance into Middle Eastern politics.^3
The two countries signed a free trade agreement. As a result of
this agreement, mutual trade volume grew from $500 million in
2000 to around $i billion in 2001.^6 According to some reports,
mutual trade in 2001 actually reached almost $2 billion.^7 By the
middle of 2002, it was estimated that the annual value of trade
exchange between the two countries would exceed $3 billion.^8
Iran. After taking power in 1997, Iranian president Mohammad
Khatami sought to improve relations with the United States and
Saudi Arabia, something that worried Saddam a great deal. How-
ever, hindered by internal politics, those relationships have not had
the expected impact, which left more room for an improvement of
Iraqi-Iranian relations.