Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis

Assessing Political Leaders in Theory and in Practice

Avoiding Deadly Conflict

In addressing the challenge of effective coercive diplomacy, Alexan-
der George (1993) stressed the importance of having clear models of
the adversaries' psychology. As with information campaigns, effec-
tive diplomacy in a conflictual situation cannot proceed effectively
without clear and accurate models of leadership psychology. This
theme was carried forward in the work of the Carnegie Commission
on Preventing Deadly Conflict (Hamburg, George, and Ballentirie
1999). They stressed the critical role of leadership, both in promot-
ing deadly conflict and in avoiding it. To effectively counter leaders
such as Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic, and Osama bin Laden
as they promote deadly conflict, clear actor-specific models of their
psychology and decision making are an absolute requisite.

The Requirement to Counter Low-Intensity Conflict

Despite the military conflicts in the Gulf and in Bosnia and Kosovo,

many political-military experts are persuaded that low-intensity

conflict—insurgencies and terrorism—will continue to be a promi-

nent feature of the security environment of the twenty-first century

and will increasingly occupy our attention. While the frequency of

terrorist incidents has gone down, the lethality has increased, and

the increased destructiveness of terrorist groups and organizations,

including consideration of the use of weapons of mass destruction,

makes effective countering of terrorism a major priority. Two vivid

examples drive home this point. The poison gas attack on the Tokyo

subways by Aum Supreme Truth transformed a feared nightmare

into terrifying reality. For this apocalyptic millenarian cult, the per-

sonality and decision making of the guru, Shoko Asahara, was of

determinative influence on the decision to mount a broad-based pro-

gram to develop weapons of mass destruction—nuclear, biological,

and chemical.

The horrific destruction of the World Trade Center in Manhattan,

foreshadowed by the bombing of the American embassies in Kenya

and Tanzania, demonstrates the dangers of the new face of terrorism.

A new form of terrorism, transnational terrorism with a global reach,

has emerged with a particularly dangerous movement under the

leadership of Osama bin Laden. He has actively threatened to employ