The Psychological Assessment of Political Leadersweapons of mass destruction in his attacks against U.S. targets. As
the barriers to mass casualty terrorism have weakened, the prospects
for terrorists engaging in nuclear, biological, or chemical terrorism
have increased.
Countering this new level of threat requires in-depth understand-
ing of such leaders as Osama bin Laden and Shoko Asahara. Psycho-
logical operations doctrine, developed and applied in conventional
warfare, also has an important role to play in countering terrorism,
but its powerful techniques have not been adapted to the changing
battlefield of low-intensity conflict. To apply psychological opera-
tions effectively to terrorism, the attributes of the target must be
specified, particularly leadership and pattern of decision making.
One cannot effectively target a group without a clear understanding
of its leaders and decision structures, which vary widely from group
to group.
Information Warfare and the Revolution in Military Affairs
While low-intensity conflict will continue to be an important ele-
ment of the security environment in the twenty-first century, in con-
sidering the changing face of warfare, information has been
identified as the central element in the security environment. The
centrality of information in its strategic considerations, both offen-
sively and defensively, is being called a revolution in military affairs.
The battle for control of the information battlefield following the
Gulf War was largely left uncontested as Saddam Hussein effectively
reframed the conflict for his radical Arab constituents and enhanced
his reputation and leadership standing. By his control of the infor-
mation environment, Slobodan Milosevic effectively countered the
military superiority of the NATO air campaign in Kosovo to reframe
the contest in such a manner as to increase his support and steel the
will of the Serbian people. He did this by identifying himself with
Marshall Tito and Clinton with Hitler and NATO with the Nazis.
The ability of Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic adroitly and
successfully to manipulate the information environment adversely
affected the course of these asymmetric campaigns.
Consider also how rapidly the support of the American public
changed for U.S. intervention in Somalia. Initially, the televised
spectacle of starving Somali children deeply touched the heartstrings