Assessing Leaders' PersonalitiesPersonality Assessment and the Situationist ChallengeOver the past twenty-five years, some theorists (e.g., Mischel 1968,
1984) have debated the relative contribution of personality and situ-
ational factors to the explanations of behavior. Clearly, situational
stimuli (to the extent the person notices and takes account of them)
often override the influence of "deeper" personality factors. In addi-
tion, the limitations and opportunities of particular locations in for-
mal and informal structures and institutions set limits to the effects
of personality.
Along with her emphasis on combinations and interactions of dis-
crete personality variables, Hermann also suggested a series of other
factors, including situational variables, that mediate or "filter" the
effects of personality on foreign policy behavior. For example, a
strong interest in foreign policy is likely to amplify the effects of per-
sonality, while training and previous experience (situational or learn-
ing factors) and sensitivity to the environment (probably a personal-
ity disposition) are likely to diminish those effects.
Hermann (1987^ has applied this model in an intensive study of
twelve leaders from sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in individual case
studies of U.S. presidents Ronald Reagan (1983) and George H. W.
Bush (1989a), Soviet president Gorbachev (1989^ see also Winter
et al. 1991a, 1991b), and Syrian president Hafez al-Assad (1988a).
On the basis of his scores on the eight component variables, for
example, Reagan showed aspects of both the "expansionist" orienta-
tion (recall the invasion of Grenada and the unrelenting pressure on
the Sandinista regime in Nicaragua) and the "developmental" orien-
tation (recall his attempts to build up American economic and mili-
tary strength using available ties with NATO and "help" from other
Western leaders). Bush, in contrast, was viewed as more of a media-
tor or integrator (literally extending his inaugural hand to the Con-
gress, in pursuit of a "kinder, gentler" nation). Gorbachev's pattern
of scores classified him as a "developmental" leader, willing to use
any means and draw upon any help to improve his country. In the
end, of course, the Soviet Union proved not to be a viable political
entity, despite Gorbachev's best (and most radical) efforts.
Hermann's model, combining as it does the interactive effects of
eight objectively defined, major personality variables with these