Between mid-2020 and mid-2021, there was a
stark increase in deaths outpacing births across
the country. Almost three-quarters of U.S.
counties experienced a natural decrease from
deaths exceeding births, up from 55.5% in 2020
and 45.5% in 2019. The trend was fueled by the
COVID-19 pandemic, as well as fewer births and
an aging population.
“You have more older Americans, and birth rates
are low so you don’t have many children being
born, and then along comes COVID, and it hits
older adults the most, often in rural areas without
access to good health care,” said Kenneth Johnson,
a senior demographer at the University of New
Hampshire. “It’s like a perfect storm, if you will, that
produced this natural decrease.”
Pittsburgh and Tampa had the largest natural
decreases of U.S. metropolitan areas, in the range
of 10,000 residents each. Pittsburgh’s overall
population declined by almost 14,000 residents
because people left. But the Tampa area grew
bigger because of an influx of more than 45,000
new residents, such as Jennifer Waldholtz who
moved from Atlanta with her husband in 2020.
They had previously lived in Orlando and missed
Florida’s palm trees and blue skies.
“We wanted to come back to Florida. It was state-
specific,” said Waldholtz, who works in nonprofit
development. “We loved the way of life in Florida.
It’s a vibe, the way of living, sunshine, palm trees,
but definitely not politically.”