The Economist April 2nd 2022 Leaders 11has voted all but twice for the winner. And as home to musi
cians, athletes and a recent former president, Florida is a cultur
al trendsetter, for better or worse, as well as ground zero for the
fight over government restrictions related to covid19.
Americans ignore this powerhouse at their peril—and should
heed the lessons it holds. For a start, Florida points to the wider
looming battle between generations. Its residents include mil
lions of retired Americans who want to limit government spend
ing, even while they use government programmes, such as
Medicare, a healthcare scheme for the elderly. Younger Florid
ians, meanwhile, want to see investment in their own future,
and are finding cities like Miami increasingly unaffordable.
The young are also more affected by the
threats Florida faces, nowhere more so than
over the environment, Florida’s biggest draw as
well as its most acute vulnerability. A fifth of its
property is at “substantial” risk of flooding be
cause of rising sealevels. Its Republican gover
nor, Ron DeSantis, was elected as an environ
mentalist and has invested in programmes that
fund cities’ “resilience”, but the state needs to
do much more. Florida has a chance to serve as an inspiration for
how to mitigate the damage of climate change, but risks becom
ing a cautionary tale of what happens when a state government
does too little, too late.
Politically, Florida has come to embody the Republican Party
and its rightward tilt. If the Floridabased Donald Trump decides
not to run again in 2024, Mr DeSantis is the likeliest Republican
nominee for president. The rising number of independents in
Florida suggests that people are fed up with both parties. But
Democrats look especially vulnerable. A decade ago they
claimed 558,000 more registered voters than Republicans; today
they trail Republicans by 43,000. Nationally, Democrats need torun more optimistic, centrist candidates who can appeal to in
dependent voters like those in Florida. As it is, they are strug
gling to shake off the “socialist” label that Republicans have giv
en them, turning off many voters, notably Hispanics.
Lastly, Florida offers a case study in economic policy. It char
ges no income tax, which enhances its appeal, as do the pro
business attitudes of the state’s leaders. The pandemic has
prompted people and firms to reconsider where they want to be
based, leading many to move out of hightax, highregulation
states (such as New York and California) to Florida and Texas,
which are probusiness and taxlight. Silicon Valley and Wall
Street types are attracted to a place where politicians welcome
them and never condemn their success.
It is neither practical nor desirable for all
other states to emulate Florida’s lowtax, low
spend model. But Florida’s success should give
pause to states intent on continuing to raise
taxes, to enact new regulations and to slander
successful businesses. As America’s population
peaks, states will compete with each other for
people. Those that prove to be good places to
live and work will be rewarded with economic growth.
Florida itself has lessons to learn, too. It has a history of
booms and busts, with an overreliance on property. It thrives as
people move there, yet some of its politicians sound antiimmi
grant. It should deal with the rising cost of living and its tired in
frastructure. The rightward shift in the legislature is concerning
for those who have a broad, and inclusive, interpretation of lib
erty. This week Mr DeSantis signed into law the “parental rights
in education” bill, also known as “don’t say gay”, which limits
discussion of sexuality in classrooms.
Still, Florida’s surge and struggles are instructive.Mock Flor
ida Man, if you wish, but don’t underestimate him.nI
n recent yearsit has sometimes seemed as if the only ques
tion worth asking about the state of the United Kingdom is
which of its four nations would be the first to break away. North
ern Ireland, already carved off from the British internal market
as the price of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal? Scotland, where the
first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, is demanding a second indepen
dence referendum next year? Or perhaps even Wales, where
polls find up to a third of voters would back a split?
In fact, pessimism about the union’s survival is overdone. In
Northern Ireland the Brexit protocol is leading to closer eco
nomic ties with the republic, but not a new wave of support for a
united Ireland (see Britain section). Any referendum in Scotland
or Wales would require Mr Johnson’s permission, which he has
made clear he will not give. None of the independence move
ments has gone beyond a backoftheenvelope sketch of how
their breakaway country would be run.
Supporters of the union are therefore winning. But for the
union to survive is not the same as for it to thrive. If the United
Kingdom is to do any better than lurch from one crisis to the
next, it needs a new constitutional settlement.Under New Labour, the devolved parliaments in Edinburgh,
Cardiff and Belfast were meant to bring breadandbutter issues,
such as health care and schooling, before each country’s voters.
Instead such issues are neglected, because elections are domin
ated by unresolved arguments about the constitution. The Scot
tish National Party (snp) has been sustained in office despite its
poor stewardship of schools and hospitals, because it monopol
ises proindependence voters. In Northern Ireland a crisis
looms. Sinn Fein, which favours a united Ireland, is likely to win
the most seats in the assembly election in May. The Democratic
Unionist Party (dup), which opposes reunification, may refuse
to share power with it, and cause the government to collapse.
Relations with Westminster are dysfunctional, too. Under
devolution, powers were crudely handed out around the United
Kingdom, but the politics favour blaming the centre rather than
working with it. London and Edinburgh are clashing over
whether to widen a Scottish road carrying freight arriving by sea
from Northern Ireland to England. Attempts to build new nuc
lear power stations or drill for gas have been stymied, because
energy policy is set in London whereas planning is devolved.Devolution is making the United Kingdom chronically discontentThese septic isles
The British constitution