The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

16 BriefingThe war in Ukraine The EconomistApril 2nd 2022

them we can’t find. Some of them we have

found already, and they are dead. And

some of them were replaced...The same

people are carrying out these operations.”

Mr Zelensky, by contrast, sees strength

in the grit of the humble, unarmed Ukrai­

nians who “waved their hands in the mid­

dle of the streets in order to stop tanks” in

Kherson, one of the cities now occupied by

Russian forces. “They decided to stand up

and do this of their own volition. I could

not have ordered them not to do it or to

throw themselves under the tank treads,”

he says. “I will stay with these people until

the end.”

He is emphatic about what that end will

be. “We believe in victory,” he says. “It’s im­

possible to believe in anything else. We

will definitely win because this is our

home, our land, our independence. It’s just

a question of time.” However, getting there

depends not just on the fighting spirit of

Ukrainians, but also on support from the

West. If Ukraine is to defend its way of life,

he says, it needs tanks, armoured person­

nel vehicles and military aircraft—and it

needs them now.

“[The West] can’t say, ‘We’ll help you in

the weeks [to come],’” Mr Zelensky argues.

“It doesn’t allow us to unblock Russia­oc­

cupied cities, to bring food to residents

there, to take the military initiative into

our own hands.” And however strong the

spirit of Ukraine’s people, Russia has far

more firepower. “The Russians have thou­

sands of military vehicles, and they are

coming and coming and coming. If we can

joke in this situation, I will. There are some

cities where there are so many tanks, they

can’t go away. They have tank traffic jams,”

he says.

Mr Zelensky divides nato into five

camps. First are those who “don’t mind a

long war because it would mean exhaust­

ing Russia, even if this means the demise

of Ukraine and comes at the cost of Ukrai­

nian lives”. Others want a quick end to the

fighting because “Russia’s market is a big

one [and] their economies are suffering”. A

third, more diverse group of countries “re­

cognise Nazism in Russia” and want Uk­

raine to prevail. They are joined by smaller

liberal countries that “want the war to end

quickly at any cost, because they think

people come first”. And last are the embar­

rassed countries that want peace right

away and in any way possible, because they

are “the offices of the Russian Federation

in Europe”.

Mr Zelensky praises America and Brit­

ain. Although he notes that the complex­

ities of American politics have sometimes

caused delays, he acknowledges that Mr Bi­

den has become increasingly engaged. But

Germany, he says, is trying to strike a bal­

ance between Russia and Ukraine. “They

have a long relationship with Russia and

they are looking at the situation through

the prism of the economy,” he says. “They

can help, if there is pressure on them do­

mestically to do so, and they can stop when

they see what they have done is sufficient.”

Asked why leaders like President Emman­

uel Macron of France say Ukraine’s part­

ners could not supply tanks to help Uk­

raine win, he retorts, “They are afraid of

Russia. And that’s it.”

Mr Zelensky is equally frustrated by the

reactive nature of sanctions that are de­

signed to punish Russia for what it has

done rather than prevent it from going fur­

ther. Existing sanctions have loopholes.

Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, for exam­

ple, has not been cut off from theswift

payment system, because it is one of the

main ways Europe pays for its gas. America

has imposed an embargo on Russian oil

and gas but Europe, a far bigger customer,

has not. “The first thing is to put your­

selves in our place and act pre­emptive­

ly...We are hearing that the decision de­

pends on whether Russia launches a chem­

ical attack on us. This is not the right ap­

proach. We are not guinea pigs.”

What does Mr Zelensky believe victory

will look like? He pauses, before delivering

the sort of answer that would be simply

unimaginable coming from Mr Putin: “Vic­

tory is being able to save as many lives as

possible...because without this nothing

would make sense. Our land is important,

yes, but ultimately, it’s just territory.” To

save everyone, defend all interests while

protecting people and not giving up terri­

tory is probably an impossible task, he

concedes. He does not know when or how

it will end, but he knows that “it will end

with us still standing here defending” life

in Ukraine.

Nobody knows for certain where Mr Pu­

tin was when his army attacked Ukraine.

Number of Javelin anti-tank missiles given to

Ukraine by America.Source: White House

4,

Melitopol Mariupol

Mykolaiv

Odessa Kherson

Dnipro

Zaporizhia Huliapole

Chernihiv

Sumy

Okhtyrka

Myrhorod

Kharkiv

Izyum

Lviv

Kyiv

Chisinau

Black

Sea

Sea of

Azov

Dnieper

UKRAINE

BELARUS

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

RUSSIA

Crimea

Ukrainian territory

annexed byRussia

Luhansk

D netsk

Area controlled

by Russian-backed

separatists

before Feb 24th

Transnistria

150 km

Russian missile, artillery

and air strikes

March rd-th 

<   

Claimed asRussian-controlled

AssessedRussian advances*

Assessed asRussian-controlled

Unit movements

Russian Ukrainian

Claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives

March th 

*Russia operated in or attacked,but does

not control Sources: Institute for the

Study ofWar; AEI’s Critical ThreatsProject;

Rochan Consulting; OspreyFlight Solutions

The fifth week of war: The military situation The relief of Kyiv

On March 31st British defence intelligence

predicted “heavy fighting” in Kyiv’s

suburbs in the coming days, even as

Russian troops began withdrawing north.

Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks

around the country.

Ukraine said it had driven Russian forces

out of the town of Irpin, on the north-

western fringes of Kyiv, and had repelled

the invaders even further to the north-

east of the city. Russia claimed it had

never intended to capture the city.