The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

TheEconomistApril2nd 2022 BriefingThewarinUkraine 17

Thechangingfortunesofwar

Movingtargets

W

henrussianandUkrainiannegoti­

atorsmetinIstanbultodiscussa po­

tential settlement on March 29th Alex­

ander Fomin, Russia’s deputy defence

minister,hadsomethingtooffer.“Inorder

to increase mutualtrust andcreate the

necessaryconditionsforfurthernegotia­

tions,”hesaid,Russiawould“drastically

reduce”operationsaroundKyivandCher­

nihiv,a city150kmtothenorth.

According to previous Russian an­

nouncements,backingofffromUkraine’s

capitalwasnota gestureofmuchconse­

quence.“Ourmainaim,”a trioofgenerals

said at a defence­ministry briefing on

March25th,hadalwaysbeen“liberating

Donbas”—twoRussianspeakingprovinces

intheeastofthecountry.Beforetheinva­

siontheRussianproxiesinthetwo“Peo­

ple’sRepublics”ofDonetskandLuhansk

hadoccupiedabouta thirdofDonbas.Rus­

siantroopshavesincegrabbedmoreofthe

territory, including parts ofMariupol, a

nowruinedportontheSeaofAzov.This

meantthatthe“maintasksofthefirststage

oftheoperation”hadbeencompleted.The

assaultonKyiv,inthistelling,hadbeena

merefeintdesignedtodistractUkrainian

forcesfromtherealactioninDonbas.

Bunkum. Abundant evidence froma

range of sources, including pre­cooked

Russianmediareportspublishedinerror,

showsthatRussiabothintendedtotake

Kyivandexpectedtodosoquickly.Ukrai­

niansclaimtohavefounddressuniforms

presumably packed for victory parades.

Butapincermovementfromthenorth­

west and north­east ofthe capital met

fierceUkrainian resistanceandsuffered

fromjammedupsupplylines.

NowRussianforcesintheareaarepull­

ingback,blowingupbridgesbehindthem

towardoffcounterattacks.Well­placedof­

ficialsfromtwoWesterncountriessaythat

Russiahasprobablymadea strategicdeci­

siontocutitslosses:“Itisgoingtobea

genuinewithdrawal,”saysone.Theretreat

mayberealratherthana ruse.Butit isnota

graciousgestureanditisnota cunning,

far­sightedplan.Itisa startlingdefeat.

Norisittheonlyone.Towardstheend

ofMarchUkraine’sarmymounteda series

of increasingly ambitious and effective

counterattacks, including towards Kher­

Forthemoment,RussianforceshavegivenuponKyiv.Whatnext?

ButMrZelenskywasathomewithhiswife
andhistwochildren.It wastheywhowoke
himupearlyonFebruary24th.“Theytold
metherewereloudexplosions.Aftera cou­
pleofminutes,I receivedthesignalthata
rocketattackwasunderway.”Soonafter
theinvasionbegan,Americaofferedhima
passagetosafety.Hechosetostay.
“It’snotaboutbeingbrave,”hesays.“I
havetoactthewayI do.”Hedidnotprepare
fortheroleofwarhero.“Ifyoudon’tknow
howtodosomethingthiswayorthatway,
behonestandthat’sit.Youhavetobehon­
est,sothatpeoplebelieveyou.Youdon’t
needtotry.Youneedtobeyourself...And
it’simportantnottoshowthatyouarebet­
terthanwhoyouare.”
InMrPutin’sworldhonestyisweak­
ness.Hispowerisbasedonsecrecyandde­
ception.Mysteryandviolencefuelhiscult
ofauthority.MrZelenskymightbesitting
inwhathisaidescallafortress,buthis
strengthliesinhisopennessandhisabili­
tytohearandreflectwhatpeoplewantof
him.ItisthestrengthofEveryman.
VasilyGrossman,a Sovietnovelistand
warcorrespondentborninthesmallJew­
ishtown ofBerdychev in northernUk­
raine,putitwellin“LifeandFate”,hisvast
novelaboutthesecondworldwar:“Hu­
manhistoryisnotthebattleofgoodstrug­
glingtoovercomeevil,”hewrites.“Itisa
battlefoughtbya greatevilstrugglingto
crusha smallkernelofhumankindness.
Butifwhatishumaninhumanbeingshas
notbeendestroyedevennow,thenevilwill
neverconquer.”n

Missile,artillery andairstrikesonKyiv
Weeks ending,number^300
200
100
0
Marth Marth Marnd Marth

↑ Russian troops have occupied most of

Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces continue

to hold out in the city centre.

Kramatorsk

Izyum

Huliapole

Donetsk

Millerovo

Mariupol

Luhansk

Horlivka

Kharkiv

Luh ansk

Donetsk Areacontrolled

byRussian-backed

separatists

beforeFeb24th

Do

nba

s

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

75 km

ClaimedasRussian-controlled

AssessedRussianadvances*

AssessedasRussian-controlled

ClaimedUkrainian

counteroffensives

March th

*Russia operated

in or attacked, but

does not control

Sources: Institute for

the Study of War; AEI’s

Critical Threats Project

The war in the east

Russia declared that it would focus on

driving Ukrainian troops out of the areas

of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces they

still control, including the long-besieged

port of Mariupol, their last toe-hold on

the Sea of Azov.