The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

28 Europe TheEconomistApril2nd 2022

looks like Putinism­light: single­party rule

without the need for violence.

The popularity of Mr Orban and Fidesz

is  genuine  and  striking.  In  the  past  two

elections  they  have  drawn  about  half  the

vote,  while  a  fragmented  opposition  split

the rest. That was enough to give Fidesz a

two­thirds  majority  in  parliament,  be­

cause it had twisted the electoral system to

its own advantage (see Graphic Detail). 

A  rule  change  in  2012  shrank  parlia­

ment and raised the share of single­candi­

date  districts,  which  naturally  favour  the

biggest party, from 176 of 386 seats to 106 of

199.  The  rest  are  determined  by  propor­
     tional  representation.  It  also  gerryman­
     dered  those  districts.  In  2020  the  govern­
     ment made things even tougher, requiring
     parties to run candidates in at least 71 dis­
     tricts to get on the proportional ballot.
     Last  year,  fear  of  Mr  Orban’s  growing
     control finally made the opposition co­op­
     erate. Two centrist parties, Democratic Co­
     alition and Momentum Movement, a hard­
     right  party,  Jobbik,  the  centre­left  Social­
     ists  and  the  progressive  Green  and  Dia­
     logue parties have fielded a single list un­
     der the rubric United for Hungary. They ran
     primaries last October for each single­can­
     didate  seat  and  nationally  for  the  job  of
     prime minister. Mr Marki­Zay, an indepen­
     dent conservative who is mayor of a small
     city, came out on top.
     Such cross­party alliances have unseat­
     ed populist leaders in other countries, in­
     cluding  Israel’s  Binyamin  Netanyahu  and
     the  Czech  Republic’s  Andrej  Babis.  Yet  in
     Hungary  Mr  Marki­Zay’s  chances  are  not
     good.  Because  of  the  mixed  electoral  sys­
     tem,  The Economistcalculates  the  opposi­
     tion needs to win about 54% of the vote to
     get  a  majority  in  parliament.  Polls  show
     them trailing Fidesz by about 50% to 44%.

Message control

One  reason  is  Mr  Orban’s  domination  of

the  media.  He  has  turned  the  country’s

state­backed  outlets  into  propaganda

megaphones. Nearly all of the country’s big

private news sources have been bought by

oligarchs friendly to the government. Most

were donated in 2018 to a foundation head­

ed by an ally of Fidesz.

Of  the  plucky  outfits  that  remained,

several  have  since  been  throttled.  Klub­

radio, a liberal station in Budapest, had its

broadcast licence denied in 2020. Index.hu

was the country’s most­visited news web­

site until a new owner with links to Mr Or­

ban  took  over  in  2021  and  fired  its  editor­

in­chief.  “I  knew  Index  would  eventually

be captured, the only question was when,”

says Viktoria Munk, who used to be deputy

editor.  The  staff  quit  and  founded  a  new

outlet called Telex, but it has less than half

the audience. Other independent websites

are read mostly inside the liberal bubble. 

Hence the opposition is struggling to be

heard.Thetwo maintvnewschannels,

one publicandoneownedbyagovern­

mentally,giveoppositioncandidatesless

thana quarterthespeakingtimeofthose

fromFidesz,accordingtoMertek,a media

watchdog.OnlyrtlKlub,apopularfor­

eign­ownedchannel,presentseven­hand­

ednewscoverage.Formonthsbeforethe

election,roadsideswerelinedwithplac­

ardsofMrOrbanandhisslogan“Forward,

notback”.ThesewereputupnotbyFidesz

but by the government. Other posters,

somepaidforbya murkyfoundationfund­

ed bystate­ownedcompanies,portrayed

MrMarki­Zayasthe“mini­me”ofFerenc

Gyurcsany, an unpopular former prime

minister,ordepictedtheoppositioncandi­

datesasa “GyurcsanyShow”.(TheDemo­

craticCoalition’sentryintheprimarywas

KlaraDobrev,MrGyurcsany’swife.)

Thatleavessocialmediaand“knocking

ondoors”,saysAnnaDonath,anopposi­

tionmep. YetduringtheprimaryFidesz’s

social­media spending outweighed the

combinedbudgetsofalloppositioncandi­

dates.Campaignspendinglimitskickedin

onFebruary12th,andsincethenthetwo

sideshavespentroughlythesameamount

onadvertising.ButlotsofFacebookads

havebeenboughtbya sketchynewparty

createdinDecemberbythewealthyHun­

garianownerofLiveJasmin,a pornography

website.Theoppositionthinksit isa decoy

intendedtodividetheanti­Fideszvote.

Fideszmakesuseofeveryconceivable

governmentresourceforthecampaign.In

Januarypeoplewhohadregisteredforvac­

cinationsagainstcovid­19beganreceiving

pro­governmentemails.Anationalrefer­

endumhasbeenscheduledonthesame

dayastheelection.Itasksquestionslike

“Doyousupporttheunrestrictedexposure

ofunderagechildrentosexuallyexplicit

mediacontentthatmayaffecttheirdevel­

opment?”—falselyinsinuatingthattheop­

positiondoes.

Inpoorruralareas,officialsaretoldthat

iftheirmunicipalitydoesnotvoteforFi­

desz there willbe no government jobs.

AfterBudapesthadthetemerityto elect

GergelyKaracsonyoftheDialoguepartyas

mayorin2019,thenationalgovernment

slasheda localtaxonbusinesses,depriv­

ingthecityofabout20%ofitsbudget,and

vetoedaloanfromtheEuropeanInvest­

mentBanktoupgradeitstrams.MrOrban

wants“tosqueezethecity,andthenpor­

traythemayorasincompetent,”saysDavid

Koranyi,anadvisertoMrKaracsony.

Thevotingrulesarebiased,too.MrOr­

bangaveethnicHungariansinneighbour­

ingcountriestherighttovote,alongwith

pensionsandotherbenefits;somostvote

forFidesz.Theycanvotebypost,whereas

émigrés(whotendtovotefortheopposi­

tion)musttraveltoconsulates.Thereare

someconcernsaboutsecretballotingand

countingvotes.Butacivil­societygroup

hastrainedmorethan20,000vote­watch­

ers,enoughfortheoppositiontosendtwo

toeveryprecinctinthecountry.

Sometricksarejustold­fashionedpoli­

tics.Thegovernmenthasraisedthemini­

mumwageby20%andpaidanunexpected

13thmonthofpensionbenefits.Lastyear

MrOrbaneliminatedincometaxforun­

der­25s,andthisyearhegavea rebatetoev­

eryfamilywithchildrenuptotheamount

paidbyanaverageworker.ZoltanKovacs,

the government’s spokesman, says it

wantstorewardfamiliesandthusraisethe

birthrate.ButlikemuchHungariantax

policy,thefreebiesrewardthemiddleclass

morethanthepoor,notesDanielPrinzof

theInstituteforFiscalStudies.

Thehandoutswillalsoaccelerateinfla­

tion,whichisprojectedtohit9%thisyear,

saysPeterVirovaczofingBank.Thegov­

ernmenthas cappedthe pricesof basic

foodsandfuel,leadingtoshortagesatpet­

rolstations.Economicgrowthisstrong,

thoughthewarinUkrainehascutfore­

castsforthisyeartoperhaps4.5%.Unem­

ploymentisa scant3.8%.Thenextgovern­

ment,though,willprobablyneedtomake

unpleasantcuts.

The economyisMrOrban’sjustifica­

Source:Taktikaiszavazas.hu

*Basedona weightedaverageofpreviouselections

andpoliticalfactorsatnationalandconstituencylevels

Hungary,single-seatconstituencies

PredicteddifferencebetweenUnitedforHungary

and Fidesz candidates*, March 29th 2022, % points

City blues

-15 - 0  15

Drifting away

Hungary, voting intention in

parliamentary election, %

Source:Europeelects.eu

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

202 2022

MFJDNOSAJJMAMFJ

MKKP

Mi Hazank

United for

Hungary

Fidesz