The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

The Economist April 2nd 2022 SpecialreportFlorida 5

Central  Florida  is  where  the  old  state  meets  the  new.  This  is
farmland and cow country, but also home to fast­growing coun­
ties and to the fourth­largest city, Orlando. The Villages, a largely
white retirement community that restricts how long children can
visit and is sometimes called “Disney World for retirees” is here,
an  hour’s  drive  north­west  of  the  actual  Disney  World.  A  90­mi­
nute  drive  south  is  Polk  County,  home  to  a  rapidly  expanding
Puerto Rican population. 
The east and west coasts share beaches and water but have dif­
ferent micro­cultures. On the west are buzzing cities like St Peters­
burg, Tampa and Sarasota, which are younger and more affordable
than far­south Naples, which merits its catchphrase of “I never felt
so  young  and  poor  until  I  moved  to  Naples.”  The  west  coast  has
more Midwesterners and is slower­paced than the east. The east
has  the  Space  Coast  around  Cape  Canaveral,  an  industry  that  is
mostly a low­orbiting sector with touristic appeal, as well as the
Gold Coast stretching from Palm Beach to Miami. 
Miami is a world in itself, one of the most global cities in Amer­
ica, with a strong Cuban influence. It is reinventing itself as a com­
mercial hub. Southern Florida is the engine of the state economy.
The state has 67 counties, but the four that make up southern Flor­
ida (Broward, Miami­Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach) contribute a
third of gdp. The south has two of the four
wealthiest  zip  codes  in  America  (Miami
Beach and Palm Beach). Yet an hour’s drive
into the Everglades is Belle Glade, Florida’s
poorest city, a postcard of despair. The Ev­
erglades serves as a reminder of the scrub,
mangroves and swamps that explorers en­
countered in the 16th century. But half the
Everglades is now gone, drained and filled
in for development. 
Florida  is  worth  trying  to  understand
for two big reasons. First, it is a window in­
to the wider challenges facing America. It has a powerful seniors’
lobby but also a growing, dynamic group of minorities, including
Hispanics, who account for more than a quarter of the population.
“We look more like the usat large than any other state,” says Susan
MacManus, a professor emerita at the University of South Florida.
As America ages and becomes more diverse, Florida may offer les­
sons for the entire country. 
Second,  Florida  influences  the  whole  country  both  economi­
cally and politically, especially as more people move in. Like Cali­
fornia and Texas, Florida is already shaping the nation, with inno­
vative  policies  that  are  copied  elsewhere.  After  the  2020  census,
Florida picked up a congressional seat and an electoral vote. It now
has more than a tenth of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the
presidency. And it is by far America’s largest swing state.
Indeed, Florida’s voters are predictive of American politics, ex­
posing  its  stark  divisions.  In  the  12  presidential  elections  since
1976, Floridians have voted four times for Democrats, eight times
for Republicans, and all but twice for the winner. Yet most races
were extremely close—typified by the 2000 “hanging­chad” elec­
tion that gripped the world. Adding up the ballots for every presi­
dential election from 1992 to 2016, the results in Florida were sep­
arated  by  less  than  20,000  votes,  or  0.04%.  The  strong  perfor­
mance  of  Mr  Trump  in  2020  widened  the  cumulative  gap  to
354,000 votes, but that still represented a margin of only 0.6%.
This special report will analyse the Sunshine State from differ­
ent angles, including the economy, public policy, migration, poli­
tics and the environment. An animating theme is Florida’s fragil­
ity,  but  also  its  rise  and  growing  importance.  “The  way  Florida
goes, the way the country goes,” says Annette Taddeo,a Democrat­
ic  state  senator  who  is  running  for  governor.Whathappens  in
Florida, in short, reverberates around the country.n

Florida’s voters

are predictive of

American politics,

exposing its stark

divisions

Theeconomy

Boomandlust

L

ongbeforeWaltDisneyarrivedin 1963 tosurveytheswamp­

landheplannedtoconvertintoa “magickingdom”,Floridians

understoodhowfantasycouldboosttheirallure.Inthe1800sSt

Augustinewasa “pitifullypoorfishingvillage”,soitwasembel­

lishedtodrawvisitors,saysJimClarke,a historian.Thefabled

fountainofyouth,whichtheSpanishexplorerJuanPoncedeLeón

supposedlyfoundhere,wasthecreationofanindustriouswoman

whoin 1910 scatteredthesitewithSpanishartefacts.Gasparilla,a

pirate­themedfestivalthatattractsmorethan300,000peopleto

Tampaeachyear,isalsoaninvention:JoséGaspar,forwhomitis

named,seemsnottohaveexisted.

ItissaidthatFloridiansfeastoncatfishinthesummerand

Yankeesinthewinter.Infact,theyareanall­seasonstaple.In 2019

tourism contributed $97bn to the economyand13% of jobs.

Around130mpeoplevisitedtheSunshineState,payinga 6%sales

taxonmostofwhattheybought.Withnopersonalincometax,

82%ofthestate’srevenuescomefromtransactiontaxes,includ­

ingsalesandexcisetax,againsta nationalaverageof48%.

Florida’smascotsareMickeyMouseandtheorange.Thestate

produces70%ofthecountry’scitrus.Butproductionhasdeclined

everyyearsince2003,asAmericansdrinklessorangejuice.This

yearFloridawillhavethesmallestorangecropsince1945,dueto

decliningdemandanda bacterialinfection.Thelargestfarmsec­

torinFloridaisnotorangesbutplantsandflowers,notesMichael

Grunwald,authorof“TheSwamp”,a historyoftheEverglades.

Tourismandcitrusmaybesymbols,butpropertyisFlorida’s

heart.Generatingaround$160bna year,thedevelopment,leasing

andsaleofrealestaterepresentsalmosta fifthofstategdp. Aubrey

Jewett,a politicalscientistattheUniversityofCentralFlorida,

saysthestate“reliesonpopulationgrowthasaneconomicmod­

el”.Cranesareasubiquitousasbeachchairs.Eightofthecountry’s

top­tenhottestneighbourhoodsfor 2022 listedbyRedfin,anes­

tateagent,wereinFlorida.SevenwereintheSarasotaarea,a more

affordablealternativetosouthernFloridathathasseenhouse

pricesriseby50%sinceMarch2020.InDecember 2021 Miami’s

rentsshotupbynearly50%,themostofanymetroarea,saysReal­

RapidgrowthisheatinguptheSunshineState

The incomers

Florida, United States

Source:WilliamH.FreyanalysisofUSCensusestimatesandIRSdata *Yearsending July 31st

300

200

100

0

-100

211510052001

Netmigration*,’000

Domestic

International

California

Pennsylvania

NewJersey

Te x a s

Georgia

NewYork

5004003002001000

Domestic migration

By selected origin state, 2011-1, ’000