The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

8 Special report Florida The Economist April 2nd 2022

trial in Pasco County, Florida. The defendant was a former cop who

shot  a  man  in  the  chest  at  a  cinema  after  a  bag  of  popcorn  was

thrown at him. (In February, a jury found him not guilty.)

Education is another example of policy innovation. Jeb Bush,

governor from 1999 to 2007, pushed through school choice, allow­

ing students to use vouchers to attend charter and private schools

with public funds. In 1999 Florida started America’s first statewide

voucher programme. Under Rick Scott, Mr Bush’s successor, it was

also  the  first  to  offer  vouchers  for  students  who  were  bullied  to

switch schools. Today almost half of Floridian students, from kin­

dergarten  to  high  school,  participate  in  school  choice.  Florida’s

public schools are in the middle of the pack, ranked 23rd out of 50

by Education Week. But its education initiatives have been popular,

especially  in  poor  families,  says  Bob  McClure,  president  of  the

James Madison Institute, a think­tank.

California  has  been  an  incubator  of  progressive  policies  and

Texas of conservative ones. Florida’s record is more mixed, befit­

ting  a  closely  divided  state.  With  the  state  legislature  under  Re­

publican control since 1996, policies that emerge from Tallahassee

have  tended  to  skew  to  the  right.  “Time  and  again,  we  lead  the

charge when it comes to conservative innovation,” says Kevin Ca­

brera of Mercury, a public­affairs firm, who was Donald Trump’s

campaign director in Florida in 2020. Voters have been more pro­

gressive.  Ballot  initiatives  have  approved  constitutional  amend­

ments to re­enfranchise felons and bar gerrymandering.

Political  meddling  has  often  obstructed  change.  Lawmakers

voted to keep some government information out of public reach.

Giving ex­felons the right to vote is another example. As of 2016,

Florida claimed more than a quarter of America’s disenfranchised

population, with one­fifth of black people

unable to vote due to their felony records.

In  2018  nearly  two­thirds  of  voters  ap­

proved restoring voting rights to ex­felons,

but in 2019 the legislature passed a law re­

quiring all court fines to be paid first, in ef­

fect blocking many from the ballot box. 

Covid led to more new policies. Mr De­

Santis  has  used  his  governorship  to  posi­

tion Florida as a state of resistance against

the  federal  government.  He  was  early  to

outlaw mask and vaccine mandates. Flori­

da was the first state to pass a law fining firms that imposed vac­

cine requirements and is now penalising school districts that de­

fied the governor’s orders and required masks, a policy that some

believe to be unconstitutional. 

By  taking  a  hardline  stance,  Mr  DeSantis  put  prosperity  and

popularity ahead of public health. It is a wager that has paid off po­

litically, elevating his and Florida’s profile, even though more than

70,000 Floridians died of covid. Yet predictions that Florida would

lead America in deaths proved false: the state has a total death rate

of 332 per 100,000 people, the country’s 15th­highest, close to New

Mexico, which had stricter stay­at­home policies.

Is Florida visionary or merely haphazard, responding to politi­

cal currents and day­to­day pressures? Mr Schale, the Democratic

strategist, says the motive behind Florida’s policymaking is a will

to  be  taken  seriously.  “There’s  the  sense  we’re  the  unrespected

stepchild of big states, and there’s the desire to be seen in the big

boys’ club,” he says. Others see Florida’s record as mixed and in­

consistent. Because population growth has been so rapid, policy­

makers  have  struggled  to  keep  up  with  sensible  and  consistent

policies, says Mr Paulson. Florida once led America in pushing for

standardised  testing  and  accountability  for  public­school  stu­

dents. But recently Mr DeSantis ledthecampaign to do away with

annual  testing,  to  boost  his  popularity.In  Florida,  one  first  plus

another can sometimes equal zero.n

Policies that

emerge from

Tallahassee have

tended to skew

to the right

Politics

The colour purple

F

romgianniversacetoRonDeSantis,Floridianslikemaking

fashionstatements.Onthewebsiteforthegovernor’sre­elec­

tioncampaign,fansofMrDeSantiscanbuy“EscapetoFlorida”t­

shirts,featuringprominentDemocratswhohavevisitedrecently.

Thoselookingfora head­to­toemakeovercanoptfor“Freedom

overFauci”flip­flops,denigratingJoeBiden’schiefmedicaladvis­

er.Accessoriesinclude“Letusalone”beveragecoolersandtwo

golfballswiththetagline“Florida’sgovernorhasa pair”.

Wardrobechoicesaside,politicsisa seriousbusinessinFlori­

da,sinceelectionshaveoftenbeensoclose.Themostfamousex­

amplewasin2000,whenGeorgeW.BushandAlGorewereina

deadheat,triggeringa recountanda SupremeCourtrulingthat

handedMrBushthepresidency,witharecordedmajorityofa

mere 537 votes.ThreemorerecountsoccurredinFloridain 2018

alone.Thethreemostrecentgubernatorialelectionshaveallbeen

decidedbymarginsof1.2%orless.

Although Senate, governors’ andpresidentialraces are in­

tenselycompetitiveinFlorida,thestate’sgovernmenthasbeen

underfirmRepublicancontrolfordecades.ADemocratwaslast

electedgovernorin1994.Between 2002 and2020,Republicans

won 25 statewideelectionsandDemocratsonlysix.WithRepubli­

cansclosetoa super­majorityinthestateHouseofRepresenta­

tives,Democrats’numbersaresoattenuatedtheyhavenohopeof

haltinglawstheydislike.EvanJenne,theHouseminorityco­lead­

er,describesDemocrats’experienceas“lyingdownonthetrain

track,eventhoughweknowit willdriverightoverus”.

InNovemberRepublicansarelikelytobeatDemocratsinthe

mid­termelectionsandusethistohighlightfurtherinroadsinthe

SunshineState.AlreadytheyaretrumpetingtheideathatFlorida

isa formerswingstatethattheyhavenowpermanentlywon.They

pointtovoter­registrationdatafrom2021,whichforthefirsttime

showedthenumberofRepublicansashigherthanDemocrats.It

wasonlybysome43,000peopleoutof14.3mregisteredvoters,but

thatisa strikingchangefroma decadeago,whenDemocrats’reg­

istrationexceededRepublicansby558,000voters.

Newsreports suggestthe nationalDemocratic Party is re­

trenchinginFloridatofocusonothercompetitivestates,likeWis­

consin,bolsteringthisimageofmountingRepublicanstrength.

“ThereisdefinitelyscepticismfromnationaldonorsaboutFlori­

da,andit’sscepticismthat’swarranted,”saysSteveSchale,who

helpedBarackObamawinFloridain 2008 and2012.Headdsthat“a

lotofDemocrats’moneyhasbeenlitonfireinthestate”with

nothingtoshowforit.

Stillswinging

Yet  cut  through  Republicans’  chest­pounding,  and  the  reality  is

that Florida has flared red but may not stay that way. It has seen

political transformations before. When he was elected in 1998 Jeb

Bush (George W.’s brother) became only the third Republican go­

vernor of Florida since Reconstruction. “We went from an evolu­

tion of being a blue state to a purple state, and now we’re between

purple and red,” says Alex Sink, the former chief financial officer,

who narrowly lost as a Democratic candidate for governor in 2010.

After  Mr  Obama  carried  Florida  in  2008  and  2012,  Democrats

hoped demography was on their side, with growing populations of

Is Florida still a swing state—or a Republican one?