The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

10 SpecialreportFlorida TheEconomistApril2nd 2022

fundMedicaidbutdon’twantMedicaretobetouched,”sheex­

plains,referringtohealthcareforthepoorandelderly.

AsmorepeopleofallgenerationsmoveintoFloridafromother

states,theimpactofmigrationonthestate’spoliticsmatters

more.Therearetwoschoolsofthought.Oneisthatpeoplewill

votewiththevaluesofthestatestheyleave,whichareoftenblue.

Whencovidisthemainissue,FloridatiltsRepublican,butasthe

pandemicsubsidesandpeoplevoteona morevariedsetofcon­

cerns,it isgoingtolookmorelikea purplestateandcouldeventu­

allyturnblue,reckonsoneveteranRepublican.Somerecenttrans­

plantsmayarriveandreactbadlytotheanaemiclevelofsocialser­

vicesandwantthegovernmenttohavea greaterrole.

AnalternativenarrativeisthatnewFloridiansaregoingto

makethestateevenmoreRepublican.ChrisSprowls,speakerof

theFloridaHouse,thinksthereisalreadyproofofhownewarriv­

alswillvoteinregistrationdata.“Theyseemtoberegisteringas

Republicans...andrealising thatthere’s areasontheychoseto

comehere,”hesays,creditingRepublicanpolicies.JackAbraham,

a technologyinvestorwhorelocatedtoMiamifromtheBayArea,

sayshehasseen“leftofcentre”peoplewhospendtimeinFlorida

“movea littlemorerightonthepoliticalspectrumthantheywere

before”.It is also possible that recent transplants, including

wealthyfinanciersandtechies,couldinvestmoreinRepublican

campaignsinFlorida,furthersharpeningthefundraisingdivide

betweenRepublicanandDemocraticcampaigns.

Floridawillseecloseelectoralbattlesinfuture,butthebattle­

fieldwillbecomemorecomplexasRepublicansandDemocrats

vietowinoverIndependents.Nominallyindependentvotersdis­

gruntledwithbothparties,whoareknownasno­partyaffiliation

(npa), arethefastest­growing“party”inFlorida,witha shareris­

ingfrom20%in 2004 to26%now.(Nationally,theshareofinde­

pendentsisgrowingtoo.)Worryingforbothparties,npastatusis

popularamongFlorida’sfastest­growinggroups:Hispanicsand

Asians,aswellastheyoung.Morethana thirdofmillennialsand

GenerationZareregisterednpas,versus21%ofbaby­boomers.

Some40%ofAsianvotersand36%ofHispanicsarenpas.

Theseswingvoterstendtobemore“candidate­centric”than

“party­centric”,saysMsMacManus.Thisputstheonusonboth

DemocratsandRepublicanstoruncandidatesthatexcitenpas.

DanGelber,theDemocraticmayorofMiamiBeach,recentlywrote

a lettertoMannyDiaz,thechairofFlorida’sDemocraticParty,sug­

gestingthattheyopenupprimaryconteststonpas,sothatthey

cannominatecandidateswhowillappealtothem.“Ironically,

thesearethefolksthatunquestionablydetermineeveryclose

election,yettheyaretreatedasanafterthought,”writesMrGelber.

Democratsstillhavemuchthinkingtodo.n

Independents rising

Florida,UnitedStates

Sources:FloridaDivisionofElections;SusanMacManus

15

12

9

6

3

0

2110200090801972

Registeredvoters,byparty,m

Independentsand

minorparties

Democrats

Republicans

Party membership

May 2021, % of registered voters

To t a l

Generation Z

(After 1996)

Millennials

(1981-96)

Generation X

(1965-80)

Baby-boomers

(19 6-6 )

Silent Gen.

(1928-  5)

Greatest Gen.

(Born before 1928)

50403020100

The environment, water and climate

A triple threat

C

enturiesago, manateesweresymbolsofdreams.Earlyex­

plorersmistookthemformermaids.Nowthegentlemammals

aresymbolsofnightmare.Lastyear1,100manatees—arounda sev­

enthofthoseinFlorida—died,theworstyearsincerecord­keep­

ingbeganinthe1970s.Pollution­fuelledalgalbloomshavekilled

theseagrasstheyeat,leavingmanytostarvetodeath.Concerned

researchersontheeastcoastIndianRiverLagoonhavestartedto

feedmanateeslettuce to sustainthem.The manatees’deaths

shockedFloridians,buttheyarean“evenbiggereventthanpeople

realise,becauseitmeansthattheenvironmenthasreacheda tip­

pingpoint”,says CraigPittman,authorof“Oh,Florida!: How

America’sWeirdestStateInfluencestheRestoftheCountry”.

TheenvironmentisatoncebothFlorida’sbiggestassetandits

greatestliability.Touristsvisitandpeoplemoveinbecausethey

aredrawntonature:thebeaches,freshwatersprings,reefsandna­

tionalparks.YetFloridaislikeanecologicalO.Henrystory,writ­

tenwithanironictwist.Wittinglyornot,peopleunderminewhat

theylovemostthroughpollution,developmentandcarbonemis­

sions.Algalbloomsthatkillseagrassarefuelledbyfertiliserrun­

offfromgardensandfarms,breachedseptictanksandotherpol­

lution,inturnkillingmarinelifeandmakingbeachesunattrac­

tive.Thebloomsspreadmorequicklyinwarmerwaters,andtem­

peratureshaverisenwithclimatechange.

Waterandswamp

Florida’s  environment,  already  inherently  fragile,  has  been  fur­

ther taxed by the explosion of a built one. The Florida panther, the

official state animal, has been killed by habitat destruction and car

collisions.  Today  fewer  than  130  Florida  panthers  are  left  in  the

wild. The Everglades, which used to be double its current size, has

been drained and filled in for development. As a reminder of how

much  man  has  changed  the  state,  Disney  World  is  built  on  land

that once formed part of the Everglades ecosystem. Invasive spe­

cies like iguanas and pythons have arrived in greater numbers.

Florida’s House of Representatives recently released a risk­as­

sessment report commissioned from the consultancy Willis Tow­

ers Watson. Of 72 initial risks catalogued, 22 are linked to the envi­

ronment, sea­level rise and climate change. With the purview of a

ten­year  time  horizon,  the  report  focuses  on  the  most  pressing

problems,  including  water,  sea­level  rise  and  extreme  weather

that is becoming more frequent. Florida has experienced around

40% of hurricanes in America, more than any other state. 

These  are  all  difficult  generational  problems.  The  state  must

decide  how  much  to  weigh  population  growth,  which  fuels  the

economy, against the cost of investing for long­term benefits that

will be appreciated long after today’s leaders have left office. And

the problems are technically challenging too.

Consider water. “Without significant intervention” water qual­

ity  and  scarcity  “will  add  up  to  a  severe  crisis  over  the  coming

years and decades”, the report says. Water problems belong in sev­

eral buckets. Sometimes Florida has too much, with rainfall and

sea­level  rise  causing  flooding.  Sometimes  it  has  too  little,  con­

tributing to drought and scarcity due to insufficient storage capac­

ity. (On average, Florida has experienced a severe and widespread

drought at least once a decade for the past 100 years.) Year­round

The environment is Florida’s main attraction, but also its

biggest vulnerability