The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

12 Special report Florida TheEconomistApril2nd 2022

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Thewayahead

Whichsideofparadise?

A

ftershepublishedheranti­slaverynovel“UncleTom’sCab­

in”andwatchedthecountrywagea civilwar,HarrietBeecher

Stowebecamea snowbird,spendingwintersintheJacksonville

area.Shewasenchantedbythestatebutenragedbyvisitors’ex­

ploitationofit,astheyslaughteredwildbirdstousetheirfeathers

infashionablehats.“Floridahasbeenconsideredinallrespectsas

a preyanda spoiltoallcomers,”shewrotein“ProtecttheBirds”,

publishedin1877.ShecomplainedthatFlorida’s“splendidflowers

andtrees,itsrareandcuriousanimalshavebeenlookeduponas

madeandcreatedonlytopleasethefancyoftourists”.

Floridaisstill“prey”and“spoil”buttomanymorepeoplethan

MsStowecouldhaveimagined.Florida’srapidgrowthhasdefied

expectation and even reason. Replete with swampland and

whippedrepeatedlybyextremeweather,FloridaisamongAmeri­

ca’sleasthospitablelong­termhabitatsforhumans,yettheycon­

tinuetoflockthere.“Therearetwooverwhelmingconclusions

we’vedrawnaboutmigrationtoFlorida:peopleknowtheriskand

theymovethereanyway,”saysGlennKelman,bossofRedFin,an

onlinepropertyfirm.

Florida’senvironmentalfragilityisoneofthefault­linesinthe

state’shistory.SouthernFloridaisbutonecatastrophichurricane

awayfromdevastation.EvenFlagler’sfortunecouldnotwithstand

theimpactofa bighurricaneonhisOverseasRailroad.“Peopleare

constantlyruining Florida;Floridaisconstantlyruiningthem

back,”writesT.D.Allmanin“FindingFlorida”.

SomeFloridiansmightbeforgivenforpayinglessattentionto

thefuture.Retireesmayjustwanttoenjoya sun­soakedlifenow,

nottoworryabouttheenvironmentdecadeshence.Butotherpeo­

plelookfartherbeyondthehorizontoseewhatstormsmightbe

brewing—whetheractualorfigurative.

Alandapart—ora pioneer

What can Florida reveal about America? In many ways, it is a land

apart from the rest of the country. Yet a state as diverse as Florida is

also  a  mini­America,  with  its  political  divisions  condensed  into

single blocks. The rise of minor parties and voters with no­party

affiliation  should  be  a  reckoning  for  the  two  main  national  par­

ties.  Immigrants  and  transplants  want  a  positive  message  about

the future, not a dire one, which should be a wake­up call to Demo­

crats to refine their campaigning to signal optimism and opportu­

nity. The lurch to the right of Mr DeSantis and other Republicans,

who  prioritise  social  issues  such  as  abortion  over  practical  eco­

nomic  concerns  of  ordinary  Floridians,  is  a  political  calculation

that may yet backfire.

Nowhere are the intergenerational divisions that scar America

clearer than in Florida. The elderly who retire there feel little con­

nection to the state or much desire to invest in its future. Mean­

while, the young require more than “freedom” (Florida’s favourite

rhetorical export) to thrive. With such austere investment in citi­

zens and good government, there is a vast gulf between older mi­

grants  who  import  their  fortunes  and  savings  into  Florida  and

those who want to build lives there, but face lower wages.

Florida  is  a  test­bed  for  the  limits  of  libertarian  policies.  The

early 2020s may be remembered as America’s “Florida years”, with

Mr  DeSantis’s  embrace  of  policies,  such  as  anti­lockdown  provi­

sions, that put his state on the national stage. But now that Florida

feels the pain of soaring house prices and displacement of the la­

bour force by new arrivals, some voters’ faith that the free market

alone is enough to fix things has been shaken. 

Republicans  don’t  like  talking  of  inequality  and  affordability

because they think it plays into the hands of Democrats, says one

lawmaker in Tallahassee. So Florida’s leaders are doing little to re­

solve the acute problems of the average voters, such as affordable

housing. If Mr DeSantis is going to use Florida as a showcase for

what he can do for the country as president, there are early warn­

ing signs. Having a covid policy that favoured businesses staying

open should not be mistaken for having a comprehensive, strate­

gic plan for economic and social success. 

Many big challenges do not line up with particular administra­

tions. The state, like America­writ­large, needs long­term invest­

ment  and  better  planning.  Environmental  concerns  are  a  prime

example. Florida’s leaders subscribe to the philosophy that “more

is  more”.  Mr  DeSantis  continues  to  celebrate  growth,  but  adding

the equivalent of a new Orlando every year will come at a cost, es­

pecially if it is ill­managed. With the department that once over­

saw this having been scrapped, there is no longer an agency or per­

son  developing  a  growth  strategy  for  the

state,  looking  at  where  developers  should

build and where people should be encour­

aged  to  move.  The  result  is  a  free­for­all

that worsens environmental problems. 

Americans  may  roll  their  eyes  at  Flori­

da’s sun­seekers and see it as a far­off state

with  little  relevance  to  their  lives.  That  is

short­sighted.  Although  politicians  with

ties to Florida have a dismal record of run­

ning for president (Mr Trump, former New

York resident, notwithstanding), Washing­

ton may see another. Four Floridians—Mr Trump, Mr Scott, Mr Ru­

bio  and  Mr  DeSantis—are  possible  presidential  contenders  in

2024. The chance that either Mr Trump or Mr DeSantis could make
it  to  the  White  House  is  on  a  par  with  the  chance  of  a  hurricane
striking that year: not guaranteed, but not improbable.
The  cycle  of  nature  continues  to  humble  those  who  have  set
their sights on Florida. The state is early to experience the effects
of global warming—but hardly alone. Property­insurance rates are
one indicator. Dramatic rises reflect a negative outlook and con­
cern from insurance companies about hitching their financial fu­
ture to Florida’s. 
If,  against  the  odds,  Florida  makes  the  essential  investment
and other changes necessary to protect it from the worst effects of
severe  weather  and  climate  change,  it  will  hold  lessons  for  the
country.  Marjory  Stoneman  Douglas,  an  environmental  activist,
once called the Everglades a test: “If we pass it, we get tokeepthe
planet.”  Jonathan  Webber  of  Florida  Conservation  Votershas  a
new twist: “If we save Florida, we get to keep the country.”n

What Florida can teach America

Florida’s leaders

are doing little to

resolve the acute

problems of the

average voters