The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

The Economist April 2nd 2022 Asia 49

bletogethomeevenmoreurgent.With
greatdifficulty,MrKoklovmanagedtobuy
a planetickettoRussiabutworriesitwill
becancelled.Thosewhoprefernottore­
turntoRussiafacehardchoices.MsBebe­
kinahopesto liveabroad.Shedoesnot
thinkshewillpickupmuchworkinRus­
sia,given theeconomic turmoil,andis
scaredtheauthoritieswillpunishherfor
social­mediapostscriticisingtheregime.
Butshefindstheprospectofmakinga new
lifeoutsideRussiabothdaunting—finding
a jobabroadwillbehard—anddepressing.
Asa writer,“mylifeisconnectedwiththe
Russianlanguage.”Shespeaksformanyof
hercompatriotswhenshesays,“Iamnot
happythatI needtoconsiderotherwaysto
livemyfuture.”n

TheSolomonIslands

Getting closer

T

o thealarmofAustraliaandNewZea­
land, the Solomon Islands has reached
a  security  agreement  with  China.  The
prime  minister,  Manasseh  Sogavare,  con­
firmed  this  on  March  29th,  furious  that  a
draft  of  the  agreement  had  been  leaked  a
few days earlier. It envisaged the arrival of
Chinese military personnel and police and
occasional “ship visits” in order “to protect
the safety of Chinese personnel and major
projects in Solomon Islands”. Already, Chi­
na  has  started  training  the  local  force  in
riot control and handling replica weapons,
after  years  when  Australia  and  New  Zea­
land have taken primary responsibility for
dealing with unrest in the Solomon Islands
and for reforming the police force.
The Solomons switched diplomatic rec­
ognition  from  Taiwan  to  China  in  2019.
Since  then  China  has  begun  repairing  the
country’s  only  gold  mine  and  taken  over
Taiwan’s  financing  of  controversial  “con­
stituency  development  funds”  for  mps,
and the state­owned China Civil Engineer­
ing Corporation has started building a sta­
dium  for  the  South  Pacific  Games  next
year. China’s Pacific expansion does not of­
fer  commercial  rewards  as  big  as  those
available in Africa or South­East Asia, but it
does bring important prizes in its long war
of  diplomatic  attrition  with  Taiwan.  Kiri­
bati, too, switched recognition to China in
2019,  leaving  only  four  Pacific  countries
still  aligned  with  Taiwan  (Nauru,  Tuvalu,
the Marshall Islands and Palau).
But China’s enhanced presence has met
stiff resistance from the provincial govern­
ment on Malaita, the Solomons’ most pop­

ulous island, whose provincialpremier,

DanielSuidani,isthemostvociferousop­

ponentofChineseinfluence.MrSogavare

hastriedinvaintodislodgehim.Toback

MrSuidani,manyMalaitansinNovember

descended on the capital, Honiara, de­

mandingthattheprimeministerhimself

stepdown.Theproteststriggeredserious

rioting,andthedestructionofmostofthe

Chinatown business district. Australia,

NewZealand,PapuaNewGuineaandFiji

deployedpeacekeepers.MrSogavarenow

sayshewantstodiversifyhissecuritypart­

nersbyseekingassistancealsofromChi­

na.HedeniesAustralianmediareportsofa

plannedChinesemilitarybase.

MrSogavare,whohashadfourstintsas

primeminister(allofwhichhaveended

prematurely),haslonghadfrostyrelations

withAustralia.Hissecondtermfollowed

seriousriotinginApril2006,duringthe14­

year­long Australia­led Regional Assis­

tance Mission to the Solomon Islands

(ramsi), whichalsoinvolvedNewZealand.

Hedidhisutmosttoundermineramsi.He

expelledbothanAustralianhighcommis­

sionerandanAustralianpolicechief,but

was himselfthen ousted ina no­confi­

dencevoteinDecember2007.

Hisdownfallthenwaspartlya conse­

quenceofhispoorrelationswithregional

allies. This time, however, Mr Sogavare

surviveda no­confidencevoteonlyinDe­

cember,allegedlythankstoChinesemon­

ey disbursed as largesse to pro­govern­

mentmps.Anotherelectionloomsin2023,

butMrSogavarewantstoextendtheparlia­

mentarytermtogivehimselfanextrayear.

Thatsuggestionhasprovedhugelyunpop­

ularwithSolomonIslanders.

AustraliaandNewZealandcandolittle

to meddledirectlyintheSolomons’do­

mesticaffairs,butbothwieldconsiderable

influence.Covid­19struckatlastinJanu­

ary,wreakinghavoc,particularlyinHonia­

ra,increasingthecountry’sdependenceon

traditional aid partners to prop up the

city’s dilapidated“Number 9” hospital.

AndmanySolomonIslandersarehorrified

by pictures inthe localpress ofbaton­

wieldingChineseriotpolicehoningtheir

skillsinquellingprotests.

The new security arrangement with

Chinabearssomeresemblancetotheones

withAustraliaandNewZealandcovering

policeassistance.Abigdifferencestems

fromChinesesettlers’bigpresenceinHo­

niara.Theyownmanyofthecity’ssmallre­

tailoutlets,benefitfromshadydealswith

thecash­strappedethnic­Melanesiangov­

ernmentandwerethemaintargetsofriot­

ersinboth 2006 and2021.Themainjobfor

the nextgeneration of would­be peace­

keepers may be protectingChinese set­

tlers—orevenexercisingtheirpolicingtal­

entsonsomeofthoseruggedmigrantson

thePacificfrontier.n

WELLINGTON
China’s growing presence alarms
Australia and New Zealand

Sydney

Brisbane

Honiara

Malaita

PortMoresby

AUSTRALIA

NEW

ZEALAND

SOLOMON

ISLANDS

VANUATU

New

Caledonia

(France)

PAPUA

NEW GUINEA

PACIFIC OCEAN

750 km

Indonesia

Out of the

frying pan

I

n mid-marchIzawati Dewi, a mother of

one,  began  queuing  at  4am  at  her  local

shop  to  buy  cooking  oil.  By  the  time  it

opened,  the  line  snaked  2km  through  her

town in central Java. She was lucky enough

to secure a pack. The shortage was nation­

wide.  In  East  Kalimantan,  on  Borneo,

which produces nearly two­fifths of Indo­

nesia’s palm oil, at least two homemakers

have died this month while queuing. 

In  February  Indonesia’s  government

capped the retail price of cooking oil (made

from palm oil) at 14,000 rupiah ($1) a litre

for the highest­quality oil, and 11,500 rupi­

ah for the cheaper sort. Overnight, shelves

emptied  across  the  country  of  273m  peo­

ple. For most Indonesians, imported oil is

an unaffordable luxury. On March 16th the

price cap was lifted and stocks miraculous­

ly  reappeared.  But  in  the  process,  prices

have more than tripled. 

Yeka Hendra Fatika, of the government

ombudsman, which monitors cooking­oil

prices throughout 274 markets in Indone­

sia, blames the price rise on factors includ­

ing the war in Ukraine and the pandemic.

By  February,  the  price  of  crude  palm  oil

(cpo)had spiked by 40% year on year. Hop­

ing to curb the retail price of an important

commodity,  the  government  in  January

imposed  a  20%  “domestic  market  obliga­

tion” (dmo) for all producers—ie, the share

of output they must offer on the local mar­

ket  before  exporting.  In  early  March  this

was raised to 30%. Then, after suppliers re­

sisted fiercely, the government a week later

did away with the dmo, in favour of charg­

ing higher export levies on cpo.

S INGAPORE

A palm-oil crisis in the world’s

biggest producer