50 Asia The Economist April 2nd 2022
T
he arrivalof Russian soldiers
shocked the villagers. An escape plan
was hatched. The children were told to
keep silent, recalls Tsunoka Yasuji, who
was eight years old in 1945 when his
family fled Habomai, one of four Japa
nese islands just north of Hokkaido that
defeated imperial Japan lost to Russia in
the final days of the second world war.
The islands, which Japan calls the North
ern Territories and Russia the Southern
Kuriles, have remained contentious ever
since, preventing the two neighbours
from concluding a formal peace treaty.
The arrival of Russian soldiers in
Ukraine has conjured up painful memo
ries for former residents. It has also
precipitated a dramatic shift in Japan’s
policy towards Russia. The Japanese
government long sought to maintain
friendlier relations than its Western
partners, in part to ease negotiations for
the return of the islands. Japan refrained
from imposing harsh sanctions on Rus
sia after the invasion of Ukraine and
annexation of Crimea in 2014. Abe Shin
zo, Japan’s longestserving prime min
ister, met Vladimir Putin, Russia’s presi
dent, 27 times between 2012 and 2020.
Under Kishida Fumio, the current
prime minister, Japan is firmly behind
Ukraine and beside the West. Breaking
with pacifist precedent, it sent bullet
proof vests to Ukraine’s army. It also
cracked open its doors to people fleeing
Ukraine, a contrast with its usual reluc
tance to take refugees. Volodymyr Zelen
sky, Ukraine’s president, addressed the
Diet (by video link), an honour never
afforded Mr Putin. Japan has also adopt
ed the full slate of Western sanctions,
despite longstanding scepticism about
their use in general.
One motivation for the change is
domestic. The Japanese public overwhelmingly supports tough measures
against Russia. Another is geopolitical. If
Japan opted out of the Western coalition
this time, it would be harder to call for
solidarity in an Asian security crisis.
Japanese officials may also calculate that a
second aim of engaging Russia—driving a
wedge between it and China—will be near
impossible as Russian dependence on
China increases after the war.
Yet solidarity with the West against
Russia creates new challenges for Japan.
Around 8% of Japan’s natural gas comes
from Russia—less than Europe imports,
but enough to matter. Japan has resisted
calls to pull out of its energy projects on
Russia’s Sakhalin island. Japanese firms
have reported an increase in cyberattacks
since the start of the invasion.
Russia does not directly threaten Hok
kaido, but it can still make trouble, espe
cially in concert with China and North
Korea. On March 25th some 3,000 of its
troops held drills on the disputed islands.
Russian ships have been unusually active
near Japan in recent weeks. Russia called
off the peacetreaty negotiations andcancelled visafree travel for former
residents of the islands. On Hokkaido’s
northern coast, locals fret about tensions
over fishing rights and rising prices for
sea urchin and crab imported from Rus
sia. The situation will get “incredibly
dire”, warns Odajima Hideo of Hoppou
kan, a museum in northern Hokkaido
dedicated to the Northern Territories,
noting that thousands of Japanese fish
ing boats and sailors were taken prisoner
during the cold war.
Since the cold war ended, Japan, more
than most countries, has enjoyed what
Japanese call heiwa bokeh, or the blur of
peace. China’s rise had begun to sharpen
the vision. For some, Russia’s invasion
has been like putting on glasses. Hasega
wa Michiko, whose family owns a bakery
just off the coast in Shibetsu, from where
the Russiancontrolled islands are vis
ible, says it has “flipped my worldview”.
Calls for increased defence spending are
louder. So is talk of controversial new
capabilities, including the possession of
missiles to strike enemy bases or the
hosting of American nuclear weapons.
The invasion of Ukraine has another,
more hopeful echo in Japan: the Russo
Japanese war of 190405. Russia entered
that contest too confident in its army and
too dismissive of its foe. As a result, it
suffered a humiliating defeat that helped
fuel the revolution of 1905 and weakened
the monarchy. “I’m hopeful about the
islands: maybe Putin will fall,” offers
Sasaki Masashi, who oversees a small
information centre for Russian sailors on
Hokkaido’s northeastern coast, where
Ukrainian embroidery is now displayed
alongside a Russian matryoshkadoll. Yet
such thinking seems wishful, at least so
far. For as long as the current tsar re
mains in power, Mr Tsunoka and his kin
have no prospect of moving home. The invasion of Ukraine has turned Japan definitively against RussiaBanyan No way back
Cooking oil under the initial dmo
scheme was sold at a fixed price, which
producers said made it hard to cover the
cost of materials. Mr Yeka says it was “the
big disparity betweencpoand dmoprices
that caused the panic buying and stockpil
ing that ensued”.
Arie Rompas of Greenpeace Indonesia,
an environmental lobby, says the govern
ment should “go after the oligarchs of the
industry, which frequently stockpiles sup
ply.” In 2019 Indonesia produced 47.1m
tonnes of cpo, of which 76% was exported.
Eddy Hartono of the Indonesian Palm OilAssociation, known as gapki, a producers’
lobby, says the initial 20% dmoeasily ex
ceeded local demand, and oil was being
lost somewhere in the distribution chain.
Indeed, in midMarch, a government com
mission found millions of tonnes of cook
ing oil stockpiled by conglomerates. State
prosecutors in Jakarta, looking into the
shortage of cooking oil, say they are inves
tigating the role of cartels.
Whatever the cause of the shortage and
price rises, few want to make do with less
cooking oil. Indonesians love their tempeh
(deep fried fermented soyabean) and bak-wan(vegetable or fruit fritters). Megawati
Sukarnoputri, a former president and still
a leader of the current president’s party,
speaking recently at a webinar on “ageing
gracefully”, made an appeal for culinary re
form: “Isn’t there a way to boil or steam? It’s
an Indonesian menu, you know. Why is it
so complicated?”
Indonesians did not take her remarks
well. One netizen responded with a video
of boiling krupuk udang(prawn crackers)
and steamed tempeh. Another posted a
photo of steamed bakwan with the caption
“Is this the future?” It did not look tasty.n