The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

TheEconomistApril2nd 2022

Graphic detail Hungary ’s election

81

Stacking the deck

I

nanupcomingelectiona populistcon-

servative party is poised for victory. It

leads polls by mid-single digits. It is also

aided by gerrymandered districts, drawn

after it won an election in 2010, which

should secure its majority today even if its

opponents get more votes. The party is not

America’s Republicans, who lead polls by

just two points and whose advantage in

gerrymandering has dwindled. Instead, it

is one that some Republicans cite as a

model: Fidesz in Hungary, led by Viktor Or-

ban, which faces voters on April 3rd.

Hungary has a mixed-member parlia-

ment. Just over half of mps represent geo-

graphic districts; the rest come from party

lists allocated in proportion to the national

vote. Academics often praise this method.

But Hungary’s version is warped.

First, rather than having independent

experts draw districts, Fidesz drew them it-

self. Legislators in many American states

do this, too. But in America, constituencies

must have nearly equal numbers of people.

In Hungary, by contrast, their populations

can vary by up to 35%. This lets the party in

power pack opposition voters into a few

heavily populated districts, and spread out

its own among lots of less-populous ones.

Fidesz has deployed this tactic deftly.

When it took power in 2010, it fared simi-

larly in the least- and most-populous dis-

tricts. At the next election in 2014, after it

re-drew the borders, its vote share was six

percentage points higher in districts with

fewer than 70,000 eligible voters than in

those with at least 80,000. As a result, Fi-

desz won 91% of constituency seats and a

two-thirds supermajority overall, despite

getting just 45% of the vote. In 2018 it won

67% of seats again, with 49% of the vote.

This time, Fidesz’s rivals are better or-

ganised. Six parties have joined forces as

the United Opposition. Had their votes

been combined in 2018, Fidesz would have

won only 104 of 199 seats. However, many

voters who in 2018 backed Jobbik, the only

conservative party in the alliance, have de-

fected. As a result, Fidesz leads polls re-

leased in March by 50%-44% on average.

This lead is too small to ensure that Fi-

desz will get the most votes. But thanks to

gerrymandering, the opposition probably

needs 54% of votes to control parliament.

Fidesz can hold on with just 43%. By con-

trast, at the peak of American Republicans’

gerrymandering in 2012, they needed48%

to win the House of Representatives.n

A wild gerrymander makes Viktor

Orban’s party hard to dislodge

→ Fidesz drew district borders that made it competitive everywhere

Vote share in Hungarian districts, 2018, %

→Fideszspreadoutitsvotersoverlotsofthinly-populateddistricts

Hungarianelectoraldistricts

→GerrymanderingboostsFidesz’sshareofseatsbytenpercentagepoints

Predictedshareofseatsfora givenshareofthevote,%

Hungarianparliamentaryelections, 2022

*HouseofRepresentativeselectionsin 2012 Sources:TheConstituency-LevelElectionsArchive;TheEconomist

-20

-10

0

10

20

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Numberofvotersindistrict,’000

Fideszvoterelativetoaverage, % points

↓ 2010 Districts varywidely in

size. Fideszvotersare spread

evenlyamongthem

↓ 2010 Districtsvarywidelyin

size.Fideszvotersarespread

evenlyamongthem

↓ 201Fideszredrawsborders,reducing

thenumberofdistrictsanddistributing

its votersamonglots of smalldistricts

↓201Fideszredrawsborders,reducing

thenumberofdistrictsanddistributing

itsvotersamonglotsofsmalldistricts

9%confidence

Fidesz

Opposition

0

20

40

60

80

0420 06080100

Onesimulation

Vote

%=seat

%

Voteshare

Seat share

→Gerrymandering

intheUSwasless

extreme*

Republicans

Democrats

0 10203040506070

↑ Number

of districts

Fidesz

Jobbik

MSZP, Párbeszéd

DK

LMP