New Scientist - USA (2022-04-02)

2 April 2022 | New Scientist | 27

Views

The columnist

Annalee Newitz

on what tech can do

for bird studies p28

Aperture

Night-time photos

show the waste of

“vampire power” p30

Letters

Russia’s nuclear

weapon threats just

don’t ring true p32

Culture

An unsettling film

offers a cow’s-eye

view of the world p34

Culture

The hunt for a whale

with an unusual

sonar signature p36

I

T HAS been two years since
the World Health Organization
declared covid-19 a pandemic,
and governments are still
changing tack. One of the biggest
shifts has been the abandonment
of the “zero covid” strategy by
countries like New Zealand and
Vietnam, which are opening up
and allowing the virus to spread.
As a result, it is tempting to
think the approach was a mistake
and that the strategy of nations
like the UK has won out. But that is
nonsense. Countries that followed
the zero-covid playbook have
done better on every measure,
from death rates to economic
growth. If more nations had
implemented this approach,
humanity would be in a better
place. When the next pandemic
emerges, governments should
consider trying to eliminate it
using zero-covid methods.
There is no single definition
of a zero-covid strategy, but
it generally means reducing
the spread of the SARS-CoV-2
coronavirus as much as possible.
This typically entails a rapid
lockdown once the virus is
detected in the community,
followed by reopening once cases
have fallen, combined with a
robust system for testing, tracing
chains of infection and supporting
those who need to self-isolate.
The most obvious benefit
is that far fewer people die. As
of 18 March, New Zealand had
seen 151 confirmed deaths from
covid-19, or 0.003 per cent of its
MIpopulation – even though the
CH
EL
LE
D’U

RB
AN

O

Comment

virus repeatedly snuck into the

country. In contrast, more than

164,000 people are confirmed

to have died in the UK, which is

0.24 per cent of the population.

Zero-covid policies also cause

less economic harm. When the

virus is barely present, people

feel confident going out, so the

economy can reopen more fully.

There is an economic cost to

the initial lockdown, but many

nations that allowed the virus

to spread have also had lockdowns

to save their health systems and

so paid the same costs – and their

lockdowns were often longer. A

2021 study found there was greater

economic growth in zero-covid

countries than in those that let

the virus spread. The one big

downside is that maintaining

border controls hurt trade and

tourism. But overall, zero-covid

nations did better economically.

Although zero covid was a

successful strategy for countries

like New Zealand, they are now

abandoning it. A key factor has

been the evolution of the virus.

The delta variant was far more

transmissible than the original

virus, and the newer omicron

variant is more transmissible

still. These new variants can

only be halted by truly draconian

measures, so governments that

previously banked on elimination

have been forced to let the virus in.

If the target of zero covid is now

being ditched, does that mean

it was a failure? A crude answer

would be: only if you think saving

lives and preserving economic

growth constitutes a misstep.

Let’s go further. Consider what

would have happened if, in early

2020, every country able to had

adopted a zero-covid policy. It is

incontestable that the global death

count would be far lower, fewer

people would have long covid and

the economic damage would have

been reduced. The virus would

still be spreading, but slowly,

and rising rates of vaccination

would control it further. Crucially,

omicron probably wouldn’t have

had the chance to evolve.

At the start of the pandemic,

governments like the UK’s

asserted that eliminating the

virus was utterly impractical and

so it was necessary to let it pass

through the population in a

“controlled” manner. Two years

on, we know that was wrong.

When the next pandemic

emerges – as it will – governments

should remember zero covid,

and work together to eliminate

the new threat if they feasibly can.

Coordinated international action

is hard, but we must learn to do it. ❚

Zero doubts

Several countries are now abandoning their zero-covid approach, but

the evidence shows it was the best route to take, says Michael Marshall

Michael Marshall is

a science writer in

Devon, UK, and author

of The Genesis Quest