18 APRIL 3, 2022
war without recognizing that his difficulties on the battlefields
in Ukraine reduce his appetite for a conventional confrontation
with the West.So you don’t buy into Putin’s warnings that that would
release catastrophic consequences?
He is very effective at preying on hopes and fears. For a long
time, he preyed on our hopes that we could have a normal
relationship, that the largest country in the world, by territory,
was going to be a partner, whether with regards to climate
change or terrorism. With very little progress. We put all our
eggs on the promise, the hope, of a good relationship instead of
committing to relationships that actually could bear fruit.
He’s also been very effective at preying on our fears.
Extremely effective. This idea that somehow he’s a madman or
somehow we’re lurching toward nuclear war — why would he
pick a fight with a much, much more capable adversary if he’s
already bogged down in Ukraine? And it is an absurd notion
that sending over Cold War-era aircraft in NATO’s inventory to
Ukraine to pilot is going to precipitate World War III. On what
basis would Putin want to increase the prospects of mutually
assured destruction? None. The guy loves himself. He sits a
football field away from his closest allies and closest advisers
because he doesn’t want to get sick. He is not suicidal. For him,
this is all rational, based on the fact that he got away with
things for so long.What’s your level of optimism around whether Ukraine
leaves this war with its sovereignty and independence
intact?
Near 100 percent. One way or another, this ends in some
sort of negotiated solution. The question is, how much blood is
spilled? Maybe I’ll go with 99 percent. Because there is a
scenario in which Russia continues to pour resources into
Ukraine over the course of months. It conscripts Russian
soldiers. It takes equipment out of mothballs, depots, and
continues to push it in and just grinds down the Ukrainian
military and the Ukrainian will to resist. And then it just
assembles that million-man force to occupy Ukraine. That’s a
pie-in-the-sky number. It’s certainly much more than 150,000.
It’s orders of magnitude bigger. But there’s a scenario in which
it does that.
But the cost, we have to remember, is an isolated Russian
economy that is not yet feeling the pain. And that means,
basically, Russia has no income. And there are these
socioeconomic protests, and there are these body bags coming
back. And to sustain a campaign in light of all of that, to build
up that kind of force to occupy Ukraine, is unlikely.You’ve talked about Putin’s miscalculations and how this
situation could be the beginning of the end for him.
It’s clear to me this is the beginning of the end. The
prospects before this war were that Putin would be able to stay
in office until at least 2036. Two more terms as president. It is
highly unlikely that he’s going to be able to stay in power that
long [now] because this is shaping up to be a catastrophic
mistake. He’s cut off the Russian economy from the rest of the
world. We have not started seeing the effects of that. These are
small-scale protests that are unfolding [now], political
protests, against the war. Not the socioeconomic protests of
people not being able to put food on their plates or the security
services not being paid to do their henchman activity andSo we need to shake off our reluctance, shake off our fears,
recognize that there are no good options and start making
tough, risk-informed decisions now. Things we thought were
impossible even a week ago are happening today: cutting our
economic ties with Russia, the world cutting its economic ties
— nobody would have conceived of that. The things that we
think are impossible now are going to be our best options in
the future. So let’s take the courageous steps we need to do
now.
There’s the saying: Russia without Ukraine is a country.
Russia with Ukraine is an empire. Does that speak to the
stakes in this war and what Putin is willing to do to achieve
them?
Absolutely. We need to realize that this doesn’t end with
Ukraine. If [Putin’s] successful there, then Moldova and
Georgia — two countries that have also paved a separate
direction — are vulnerable. Belarus is basically captured at this
point. And then that’s already rebuilding a large portion of the
Soviet Union or the Russian empire that preceded it. And it
doesn’t probably end there, either. Because NATO will have
proven itself to be a paper tiger, potentially.
These events that are unfolding now will shape the 21st
century. If Vladimir Putin is successful there and he starts to
rebuild the Russian empire, it is going to embolden other
authoritarian regimes that could use military force to achieve
their objectives. But if democracy holds its ground, if Ukraine
holds it ground with support — material support from the
West — then basically it puts the authoritarian world on its
heels. [Showing] that might does not achieve political ends.
And concerns of China going after Taiwan become more
remote because they need to understand how isolated they
could become because of the rally of the democratic world
around values.
So this is a pivotal moment for the next several decades of
the 21st century, and we need to seize that moment. I mean,
we’re talking about parochial issues like fuel prices in the U.S. I
don’t miss the fact that it impacts people’s lives and it’s
important. But there is a bit of a failure in leadership to not
couch this important moment for what it is, and to pivot to
talking to the American people about an extra dollar in fuel —
it’s missing the forest for the trees.
You’ve described the current administration’s approach as
a bit myopic, as “looking at the situation through a
drinking straw.” There’s been a lot happening recently.
Have you seen a shift?
Not yet. In the econ sphere we’ve been dragged in this
direction in a lot of ways. We’ve been dragged in this direction
by popular support from our citizenry, by the European Union
and by a courageous world leader in the form of President
[Volodymyr] Zelensky. He’s the one that compelled the
Europeans to sanction the central banks, and we followed suit.
He’s the one that compelled Europeans to pursue SWIFT
sanctions, and we followed suit. We are not leading here. We’ve
always wanted Europe to take the lead. They are. The least we
could do is follow.
We still have a major role here. We’re the sole superpower.
We have the most capable military in the world. And we are
not thinking creatively about where this ends up, how we get
there. We’re thinking about the immediate risks. We’re being
warned off by Putin using all these rhetorical flourishes about