GRAND NATIONAL
202212 Saturday April 9 2022
the timesAGE ISN’T JUST A NUMBERPast ten winners were all
between 8 and 118910114213PRACTICE MAKES PERFECTCareer starts under rules for
each of past ten winners
20112012201320142015201620172018
201920212135433419
2418303417WHEN I FELL
IN LOVE WITH
HORSE RACINGI’
ve ridden horses since I was
young but the first time that I
paid any real attention to
racing was when Well To Do
won the 1972 Grand National.
My mother knew Well To Do’strainer, Tim Forster, well and I
remember watching it on a little
black-and-white television. That was
something that really caught my
attention — the huge excitement
that this race on a little screen was
able to generate.
I started off riding in point-to-
points and then in jump races as an
amateur, including the 1988 Grand
National on 200-1 chance Marcolo.
We crashed at Becher’s and on my
very next ride, which was two or
three days later in a hurdle race at
Worcester, I broke my neck.
I was upsides at the last on Sir
Dubel, a complete outsider, and on
one side was Peter Hobbs [younger
brother of the trainer Philip] and the
other was Graham McCourt, which
shows how long ago it was.
I broke the hangman’s bone in myneck. I was paralysed briefly
and didn’t leave Worcester
hospital for about two
months. I was very lucky
but that was the end of
race-riding. I was 27.
I then had various
different roles within
racing. I worked in
Newmarket, America
and Australia and then
when I came back I was
assistant trainer to John
Edwards for several
years. It was only really
towards the end of
that period that it
occurred to me that I
might train.I started in 1995 where I am
now, in Herefordshire. It was
my grandmother’s family
home. All that existed
when I moved here were
six stables and a little
old cobbled courtyard.
I’ve got 100 stables now.
At the start you just
hope you’re going to
train a winner. You
don’t have any
expectations at all. If I
look back at my early
results, it was
extraordinary — I don’t
know how we got the
results we did so quickly.
We had good horses
early on such as Teeton
Mill and Lady Rebecca.
My winning percentagesin those seasons were crazy — 29,
28, 28. I don’t know how I did it.
Winning the National in 2009
with Mon Mome was a dream come
true. I actually thought he had a bit
of a chance the previous year and he
finished tenth.
Turning for home I remember
the commentator saying, “Any
one of a dozen horses can win the
Grand National of 2009,” and at that
point the prize money only went
down to eighth. I thought, “I bet we’ll
finish tenth.”
From that moment Mon Mome
zoomed to the front and powered
away. He was one of the most
impressive winners of the past
20 years. People focus on his price of
100-1 rather than the fact that he
won by absolutely miles.
Interview: Rob WrightPoint-to-points and
watching the National in
black and white piqued
interest of the trainer
Venetia Williams
Williams with 2009
winner Mon MomeT
he Grand National is a unique test: 40
runners, 30 fences and only one winner. It
can be difficult to work out which horses will
be suited by this Aintree marathon and the
varied challenges it presents.
For a qualitative analysis, trust Rob Wright to steer
you in the right direction; if you prefer data, what
about assessing the trends? We can take the winners of
the past ten renewals, find some common ground
among them and plug those criteria into this year’s
field. Will it produce a winning tip? Let’s find out...Age is an easy starting point: each of the past ten
Grand National winners was aged between eight and
11, so we can eliminate any runners which fall outside
that range: Coko Beach, Noble Yeats, Anibale Fly,
Blaklion.Picking a winner? It couldn’t be easier
Age, stamina, experience, form?
Paddy von Behr crunches the
numbers to find common ground
among the past ten victors and
settle on some data-driven tips
In such a testing race, with a huge field jostling for
position, while a vociferous crowd cheers them on,
experience is crucial. Of the past ten winners, the
reigning champion Minella Times was the least
experienced runner, making his 18th start under rules
this time last year. So, let’s rule out this year’s hopefuls
with fewer than 17 races under their belt: Eclair Surf,
Escaria Ten, Longhouse Poet, Mount Ida,
Deise Aba.With the famous Grand National fences to tackle,
varying as they do in size and shape, nimble jumping is
clearly an important asset. Nine of the past ten winners
lined up for the race have fallen or unseated their rider
in fewer than 12 per cent of their chase starts. This
year’s unsteady jumpers are: Top Ville Ben, Poker
Party.A certain level of ability is required too — this is no
run-of-the-mill handicap, after all. Nine of the past ten
winners had won a race at class-two level or better.
These horses have not: Discorama, Enjoy D’allen,
Dingo Dollar, Class Conti.The National is an energy-sapping contest, for which
race fitness is vital. Each of the past ten winners have
limbered up by finishing at least one race in the
preceding three months. They had also all run at least
three times since the start of the previous September.
Accordingly, those who may arrive undercooked this
year are: Minella Times, Brahma Bull, De Rasher
Counter, Kildisart, Freewheelin Dylan, Mighty
Thunder, Commodore, School Boy Hours, Romain
De Senam.BETTER FROM ABROADWhere the past ten winners were bredIrelandFranceGreat Britain721Ireland has come to dominate in the National Hunt
game over recent years, and its influence on this race is
no exception. Four of the past five winners were trained
in Ireland, while only one of the past ten was bred in
Britain. We can whittle down the field a little further by
striking out some British-bred runners: Santini, Snow
Leopardess, Fortescue.Stamina, unsurprisingly, is necessary for a National
winner. Eight of the past ten runners to conquer this
marathon trip had previously won a race over farther
than three miles, unlike: Run Wild Fred,
Fiddlerontheroof, Two For Gold, Samcro, Good Boy
Bobby, Agusta Gold.Finally, the National itself. None of the past ten winners
had tried and failed to win the race before. In 2019,
Tiger Roll returned to successfully defend his crown,
while the others were all attempting it for the first time.
So we can eliminate: Any Second Now, Burrows Saint,
Cloth Cap... which leaves us with four horses: at the prices, Delta
Work is our data-driven win-only selection, while
Lostintranslation, Death Duty and Domaine De L’Isle
offer each-way value.
ARRIVING FRESHPast ten winners all had sufficient
race fitness
Days since latest completed race3 4 5 6 4 5 3 4 3 32011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
202136
57
36
24
30
35
85
32
25
63
Runs since start of September
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021The data makes a strong
case for Delta Work,
above winning the Cross
Country Steeple Chase at
CheltenhamMARC ASPLAND/THE TIMES*